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Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Cardinal Health Inc. is one of the leading wholesale distributors of pharmaceuticals, medical/surgical supplies and related products to a broad range of health care customers.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

CAH is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since CAH's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 228.9% premium to its calculated fair value of $33.98. CAH did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

CAH earned one Star in this section for 1.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1983 and has increased its dividend payments for 28 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The negative NPV MMA Diff. means that on a NPV basis the dividend earnings from an investment in CAH would be less than a similar amount invested in MMA earning a 20-year average rate of 3.75%. If CAH grows its dividend at 0.1% per year, it will never equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.75%.

Peers: The company's peer group includes: McKesson Corporation (MCK) with a 0.6% yield and Owens & Minor Inc. (OMI) with a 0.0% yield.

Conclusion: CAH did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of one Star. This quantitatively ranks CAH as a 1-Star Very Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $34.02 before CAH's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $700 minimum that I look for in a stock with 28 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 5.9%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $700 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 12.0%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 0.1% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. CAH has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

CAH offers a diversified line of products and services and is well situated as one of the major players in the U.S. drug distribution industry. Intense competition in the drug distribution market and consolidation among retail pharmacies could squeeze future margins. Free Cash Flow of 15% (down from 22%) is well below my maximum of 60%, and Debt to Total Capital of 271% (up from 254%) is well above my 45% maximum. CAH is currently trading well above my calculated fair value price of $33.98. For now, I will wait for a more opportune time to invest in CAH.
 

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