Bye Bye BGNE And Mexichem

After a bull run for 5 days the Dow-Jones is down today. But as usual the index is only part of the picture. We have one reporting company today, a rather minor holding. Be aware that I am taking tomorrow off to trek to a distant outpatient clinic for a second Moderna jab which I suspect will not be enough to get into Britain this year—or to protect against mutations. The World Health Organisation on its fact-finding mission to Wuhan said that the most plausible cause for COVID-19 which broke out there is transmission from an intermediary animal—not a leak from a laboratory looking for harmful disease.

I have a batch of Asia shares at my bank, HSBC, which is now ceasing to offer trades or even price coverage. This chunk of assets now is in ACAT and I have no data on prices. I opened the Asia stock positions when the bank set up brokerage services at its posh branches, including mine, about 6 years ago. There is nothing as hopeless as a bank that doesn't know where its profits come from.

Today I am offering a special note covering all our drug shareholdings.

Business newspaper article

image source

Oil Patch News:

*Canada's Computer Modelling Group, whose software models reservoirs of oil and gas finds, reported on its Q3 and 9 mos in Canadian dollars, which I have not converted to USD. CMDXF reported Q3 sales down 17% y/y to in Q3, notably from a 32% drop in perpetual revenues, to $16.04 mn. Only professional service sales rose. The drop hit the US, Canadian, and South American sales, blamed on COVID-19, oil industry consolidation, and a drop in shale extraction. Eastern hemisphere sales rose 1% to $6.03 mn in Q3—meaning the rest of the world.

9-mo revenues were down only $6 mn. Diluted net income in Q3 fell to $5.875 mn or 7¢/sh from 8¢ in FY Q3 2020. Free cash flow per share hit 9¢. Operating expenses fell 35% in part because executives and board members took a cut in benefits, gaining eligibility for Canadian benefits worth $4.3 mn. It actually hired a few more people in the quarter. Having chopped the dividend to 5 loony cents after its Q1 results, CMDXF retained that level this month. For the 9 months, revenues fell 12% or $6.7 mn to $50.562 mn, with modest gains in South America, probably from new drilling in Guyana.

Now for some good news. CMDXF continued its R&D as customers switched to an energy transitionl mode, to recover and sequesterd carbon. It also get new business from geothermal projects like those from Ormat. The end result is that 9-mo realized earnings were at 75% of prior year in perpetual revenue and a big order from an unnamed southeast Asian customer. Declining production does not stop reservoir modeling. Its operating expenses without the Canadian benefits 42% for the quarter and 40% for the 9-mos, aligned with 2019-20.

Moreover, CMDXF has $39.2 mn of cash on hand. Note also that the C$ is up against the greenback and expected to rise more. CMDXF fell 6.28% cents in US trading today, to $41.35/sh. It is mainly quoted at CMG up north. I bought more at that price but did not get the 100 shares I bid for.

*While oil prices continued to rise, hitting a 13-mo high, outside the FTSE in oil-rich London European markets were down and after an initial jump even bitcoin lost traction.

*Our UK oil companies dropped today, BP by 1.84% more, and Royal Dutch Shell B by 0.39% at the open. Here is the reason for the disparity. Chicago-based Zacks wrote that RDS-B gained 21% in the last half-year vs oil industry average total gain of 7.7% leading it to decide that the Anglo-Dutch oil major is “poised for capitla appreciation base on a slew of tailwinds.” It credits Shell's trading arm for “cushioning” the impact of the virus along with its prowess in supplying LNG. Shell also got points from its aims to cut carbon emissions and its investment-grade which lets it borrow cheaply. “Shell is the preferred energy major to own now.”

*Canadian Solar, CSIQ, jumped 3.4% to $61.51. It makes solar panels in China.

*ABB of Switzerland rose 0.7% today so Joe Shaefer, our lot, and AQN are now only down 0.85%. It later fell but remained in the black.

*Our yield play Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure plc, AY, was chopped to market perform from outperform by Raymond James analysts but is still overweighted by Morgan Stanley. We like its essentially tax-free payouts, which you have to keep the shares to gain from, a special niche discovered by Harry Geisel. Later in the morning the share fell 5.56% leading me to buy more at $41.39. I succeeded. It is now $41.58.Canadian Algonquin Power & Utilities, AQN, owner of some AY, fell 0.86%.

*Nuclear fuel miner Cameco opened up 5%, a 12 mo high, before falling to be up only 2.1%. It was supported by analysts in the latest Barron's for its laser enrichment of uranium, whatever that may be. CCJ.

*Azure Power of Mauritius fell because of doubts about Indian solar capture and other infrastructure following a dam break which had been forecast and ignored. AZRE.

*However Energy Fuels, UUUU, is down 2.9%.

Industry

*Mexican Cemex got the US Dept of Energy funding to capture carbon wrote sentidocomun.mx.com with which we exchange news. CX is up 0.5% on its smarts and we're up 141%.

*Nio of China is up nearly 5%.

*Qualcomm will launch a high-speed 5G modem this year which should boost its price some more. It is our accidental holding because it controls a fund investing in Israeli unlisted small caps. QCOM.

*Chinese trustbusteres are now targeting Tencent, according to Reuters. Any non state-owned big company is fair game there.

*Nokia fell 2.6% today in London, to euros 2.48. NOK.

*Coca-Cola will use recycled bottles, good news for our Norwegian Tomra Systems, maker of reverse vending machines for empties. TMRAY.

*Forbes named BAE Systems one of America's best large employers. The problem: BAESY is British.

Pharma Stocks

*My favorite sector is in focus today following news about how COVID-19 mutations are thriving. Many non-jab companies are moving. Chinese Beigene is up fractionally. BGNE is now a sell after the Chinese crackdown on TCEHY. I sold my BGNE at $370 or more today.

*Canada's Abcellera Biologics gained 4.5% today but is down from its 33% jump earlier this month. ABCL was rated outperform by SVB-Leerink yesterday over its Lilly-linked bamlanivimab against the virus.

*Fellow Canadian Aurinia Pharma, AUPH, is up 0.33%.

*Astra-Zeneca, the poodle in the COVID-19 vaccine race of greyhounds, is up 0.6%. AZN sells its jab to the UK and Australia despite a South African mutation.

*Bioline RX of Israel is down 0.4% at $15.65. BLRX.

*Bristol-Myers was down 0.45% but now is up on news of an immune checkpoint inhibitor and launch of Opdivo against bladder cancer. Cerus, maker of blood safety products, is down 2.22% to $8.05. Merck fell 0.53% despite finding that its antiviral molnupivar prevents COVID-19 damage to lung tissue. US cancer small cap Exelixis reporting tomorrow fell as analysts expect it to earn 5¢ vs 26¢ last year. All are US firms.

*Enlivex, ENLV, fell 3.6% after trading was halted Monday when the small cap rose 21.6% to $23+.

*Japan's Eisai gained 0.54% to $74.74 but fell back. Takeda rose 1.6% to $17.7. ESALY, TAK.

*Glaxo rose 0.6% despite its senior vaccine specialist being poached by Dynavax, DVAX.

*Spanish Grifols, specialist in globulin immunity blood products, GRFS, fell 1%.

*Novocure of Israel and the Channel Island of Jersey gained another 2.16%. NVCR is trialing an electric device to kill cancers. It is up 50% YTD and we are up 14% but my cousin with pancreatic cancer is a fatalist and much older than me.

*Danish Novo-Nordisk, with weight loss and diabetes drugs, rose 0.4% to $71.2. Our NVO gain is 70%.

*Swiss Novartis is up 0.14% to $91.13. Swiss Roche is up 2.27% to $43.79. NVS, RHHBY.

*Indian Dr. Reddy's, RDY, picked by Abhimanyu, is up 0.18%, appropriate for a firm with a Jewish CEO. 18 is a Hebrew lucky number as it spells out chai, life.

*Israeli Teva is up 1.26% hereafter upticking in Europe this morning on big volume by 4%. This may have been a bear trap. Or anticipation of good results when it reports premarket tomorrow on 2020. Teva did well with new drugs for tardive dyskinesia, Austedo, and migraine drug Ajovy as its Copaxone MS franchise lost out. Both were developed under its South African-born US CEO Jeremy Levin.

*Canadian Zymeworks, headed by a Muslim, is up 3.03%. HC Wainwright rated ZYME a buy with a TP of $57 (US).

Funds

*Taiwan Fund is in clover as its largest holding, Taiwan Semiconductor reported that its Jan. sales this year were 22% over those of 2020. It is by far the largest holding of our Closed-End Fund, TWN. It can go very long because it is no longer regulated as a CEF.

*Fibra Uno was sold at 24.1 Mexican pesos today. FBASF.

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William K. 3 years ago Member's comment

Thanks for an enjoyable read, VL.