Bull Of The Day: CrowdStrike

CrowdStrike (CRWD - Free Report) is the $11 billion cyber-security darling of 2019 that IPO'd around $60 last June, ran to $100 in August and then just built a base around $45-50 in Q4.

And that was part of the reason I pounced on shares under $50 on December 30 once the selling appeared to be over.

In fact, the sellers may regret what they just did last month. Here's what I told my TAZR Trader group in the recent Buy Alert...

TAZR Traders: Portfolio is buying CrowdStrike (CRWD - Free Report) between $48 and $50.

CrowdStrike has a powerful AI/machine learning (ML) approach to 24/7 malware threats that can no longer be recognized with traditional "signature-based" metrics (past threat patterns).

CRWD became a Zacks #2 Rank after beating expectations and providing solid guidance in its Q3 report on Dec 5.

But the stock sold off afterwards, with particularly heavy volume on Dec 9 -- exactly 180 days after its IPO on June 12.

And that means it was IPO investors who were "locked-up" and just wanted out after missing their chance to sell at $100. Shares dropped from that peak during the Ukraine news.

The bad news is that just about any selling was justified in the second half based valuation alone as the stock still trades at 20X forward sales with a $10 billion market cap.

The good news is that the insider selling hardly put a dent in the potential turn that is setting up. In fact, shares couldn't even touch the Oct-Nov double bottom at $45 and there has been a good amount of volume this month showing willing buyers taking shares from shaky insider hands.

Now that they are out of the way, let's see what the growth and upside are for CRWD.

(end of excerpt from TAZR Buy Alert on Jan 30)

I went on in that report to describe the analysts who were turning bullish again, despite the valuation.

Silencing the Haters

Stifel Nicolaus raised their price target on CRWD shares to $90 after going over the company's Q3 beats in core SaaS metrics...

**ARR increased 97.4% y/y to $501.7 million vs. $465.2M Stifel estimate

**Total revenue increased 88.5% y/y to $125.1M vs. $119M Stifel estimate

**Subscription revenue increased 98.1% y/y to $114.2M vs. $108.5M Stifel estimate

Stifel analyst Gur Talpaz said CrowdStrike delivered "another clean beat" in Q3 across all major financial metrics and he believes the company's report "has put to bed unsubstantiated fears surrounding heightened competitive pressures and various conspiracy theories."

In a note titled "Mic Drop: CrowdStrike Silences the Haters," Talpaz added that he believes CrowdStrike's cloud-centric approach to endpoint and device security is increasingly resonating with customers and he continues to see the company having "a significant cloud-defined moat that other vendors are ill-equipped to compete against." 

Guidance Raised Ahead of Another Big Growth Year

CrowdStrike management also raised guidance for their Q4 FY20 (ends in January) with total revenue in the range of $135.9-138.6 million vs. prior consensus $127.2M.

This caused analysts not only to raise this year's EPS estimates but FY 2021 (begins February) jumped from a loss of 40-cents to a loss of just 21-cents.

The topline is expected to grow a healthy 42% from $467 million to $664 million in the new year.

Oppenheimer titled their post-earnings note: Solid F3Q20 Execution Supported by Record Net New Customer & ARR; Positive Cash Flow In Sight for FY21. They have a $100 PT on CRWD shares.

Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz wrote that CrowdStrike Holdings reported another "spectacular quarter." Despite a high fundamental bar heading into the print, the company surpassed expectations as total annual recurring revenue growth of 97% year-over-year easily beat the Street's 85% estimate. The analyst continues to believe the stock will likely show a strong rebound over the next several months. He keeps a Buy rating on CrowdStrike with a $77 price target.

And on Dec 30, the day I first bought CRWD shares under $50, came this analyst move...

Needham Adds CRWD to Conviction List

Needham analyst Alex Henderson kept his Buy rating and $92 price target on Crowdstrike, and added the stock to the Needham Conviction List in favor of Zscaler (ZS - Free Report) , calling it his "Single Best Idea in Security" heading into 2020. The analyst said the company's "technology, platform and efficacy" combine to create "one of the core platforms in Security" regardless of its customer strategy. Henderson added that CrowdStrike offers the "right technology" to improve security for either legacy perimeter defense or for "emerging, zero-trust" cloud-direct security.

Kevin Cook is a Senior Stock Strategist for Zacks Investment Research where he runs the TAZR Trader and more

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David A Romero 4 years ago Member's comment

Close your eye and buy theses stocks today-wll-crc-10% jump by EOD 30% drop in last 3 days US China deal will be signed on Jan 15.