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Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 25, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 28.36%.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing expectations in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.88%, on average.

Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Biogen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Biogen Inc. Quote

Biogen’s stock has risen 9.5% this year so far compared with a decrease of 27.2% for the industry

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Factors to Consider

Biogen’s sales in the third quarter are likely to have been hurt by lower sales of Tecfidera and Spinraza.

Biogen’s multiple sclerosis revenues have been declining since the past few quarters. It is unlikely that MS sales have improved in the third quarter.

Among Biogen’s MS drugs, sales of Tecfidera are likely to have declined steeply, hurt by the launch of multiple generics products in the United States. Tecfidera generics are available in international markets such as Canada and Germany and may have been launched in other European markets in the third quarter. This is expected to have hurt ex-U.S sales from the drug.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates for third-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $317 million and $322 million, respectively.

Sales of another MS drug, Tysabri are also likely to have declined in the third quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates for Tysabri are pegged at $512 million and $509.6 million, respectively.

Sales volumes of another MS drug Vumerity are likely to have increased driven by demand growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Vumerity is $147 million. In the second quarter, Biogen had said that due to contract manufacturing supply issues, it delayed any further country launches. It remains to be seen if the issue was resolved.

Biogen receives royalties on U.S. sales of Roche’s (RHHBY - Free Report) MS drug, Ocrevus, which is also expected to have contributed to the top line.

Roche’s Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) was approved for the treatment of relapsing MS (RMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS) in March 2017

Revenues from Biogen’s share of Roche’s drugs, Rituxan and Gazyva are also likely to have declined in the quarter due to biosimilar competition for Rituxan.

Increased competition in the United States is likely to have hurt sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, in the United States.

Outside the United States, sales of Spinraza might have been hurt due by competition and currency headwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Spinraza is $420 million.

Biogen is likely to have recorded only minimal sales from the new Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm, in the third quarter. After theCenters for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) denied all Medicare beneficiaries access to Aduhelm, in its final NCD decision, Biogen decided to substantially wind down commercial operations for Aduhelm, retaining only minimal resources to manage patients’ access programs.

Biosimilars revenues may have benefited from volume increase, which is likely to have been offset by pricing pressure and currency headwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of biosimilars is $203 million, while our estimate is $205.1 million.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Biogen time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is -0.34% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.15 per share is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.14 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.

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