Big Tech: Which Way Is It Going To Go?, My Twitter Beef With The Technicians, LULU AVGO COST & ORCL Earnings

As I wrote Thursday morning in the first section of my blog “Retest Or Failed Breakout?”, Wednesday’s correction did no technical damage except to the QQQ which is struggling to break out from its September 2nd highs. In the second section, I wrote about the “Rotation Within The QQQ” from the mega caps to the mid and small caps within the ETF in which Frank Cappelleri showed the Equal Weight Nasdaq-100 to have massively broken out from its September 2nd highs while the overall QQQ, dominated as it is by the Big 5 and a few other big tech stocks like TSLA and NVDA, is struggling to.

macro photography of black circuit board

Image Source: Unsplash

A couple of nice charts yesterday from Arthur Hill and Greg Rieben nicely illustrate Big Tech’s failure to participate in the most recent leg of the rally. Hill’s chart shows AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and NVDA trading in a range well below their September 2nd ATHs (Source: Arthur Hill Twitter, December 10, 11:08 am). Rieben’s chart shows this with respect to FB (Source: Greg Rieben Twitter, December 10, 7:45 am).

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

The only way in which a human being can make some approach to knowing the whole of a subject is by hearing what can be said about it by persons of every variety of opinion and studying all modes in which it can be looked at by every character of mind. No wise man ever acquired his wisdom in any mode but this; nor is it in the nature of human intellect to become wise in any other manner – JS Mill, On Liberty

As an aside, when I retweeted Rieben’s chart with the comment “Nice chart Greg Rieben but I’ll pass #Overvalued $FB”, Rieben testily replied, “Undervalued, overvalued I could care less. The chart looks good that’s all I know and I’ve been long $FB for years purely as a trend follower”.

A word to the wise: Never try to engage a pure technician on anything other than price. Their belief that only price matters is held so dogmatically that any comment referencing anything else i.e.. fundamentals, valuation, etc.. is met with the intolerance of a religious fanatic. It’s a fine line between appreciating their excellent charts while recognizing the dogmatism and limitations of their perspective.

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