As the November 8 U.S. presidential election draws near, voter polls have tightened following the October 28 reveal that the FBI has renewed its probe into Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's email practices. Goldman Sachs argued last week that Clinton's diminished lead gives Republican nominee Donald Trump a "potential," albeit narrow, path to victory, and several Wall Street firms have now offered up their "Trump stock picks" as investors grapple with a narrower race and widely-divergent policies from the two candidates.

CLSA names top Trump stocks

Writing in an October 17 research note, CLSA's Desh Peramunetilleke argues that a Trump presidency would positively impact infrastructure, aerospace and defense, oil and gas, biotech, gold, and companies with large overseas cash holdings. On the other hand, the analyst says investment themes that will be negatively impacted include equities and other risky assets, the bond market, industrials and U.S. exporters, global software and outsourcing companies, sectors that rely on foreign workers, and big banks under a potential reinstatement of Glass-Steagall.

Based on those predictions, Peramunetilleke offers a small selection of Trump-beneficiary stocks. In the infrastructure basket, he names Caterpillar (CAT), Cummins (CMI), PACCAR (PCAR), Cemex (CX), Fluor (FLR) and Jacobs Engineering (JEC).

In defense, Peramunetilleke likes United Technologies (UTX), Honeywell (HON), Boeing (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTN) and Northrop Grumman (NOC).

Turning to a Trump focus on conventional fossil fuel companies, the analyst picks ConocoPhillips (COP), Anadarko (APC), Pioneer (PXD), Apache (APA) and Continental Resources (CLR).

Seeing a removal of the "anti-biotech" overhang under Trump, Peramunetilleke offers Amgen (AMGN), Gilead (GILD), AbbVie (ABBV) and Celgene (CELG).

Among "safe haven" gold stocks, he names Newmont Mining (NEM), Randgold (GOLD) and AngloGold (AU).

Finally, predicting a potential repatriation of foreign cash under a Trump tax holiday, the analyst names Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) and Cisco (CSCO).

Deutsche Bank Trump Picks 

CLSA's election calls follow a similar note from Deutsche Bank on September 16, in which analyst David Bianco offered Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Pfizer (PFE) and Medtronic (MDT) as drug and medical device stocks benefiting from a Trump win, as well as oil service companies such as Halliburton (HAL), and chemicals and construction materials companies including Dow Chemical (DOW) and Martin Marietta (MLM).

Goldman says tightening polls give Trump chance

Weighing in on recent political polls, Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius and team said November 1 that Hillary Clinton's lead in national trackers declined about two percentage points after Friday, October 28, with a prediction markets are also forecasting a more competitive election now. Hatzius argues that Clinton's shrinking lead appears to be linked to increased support for Trump rather than direct losses in Clinton sentiment, as the Republican candidate's previous, negative campaign developments fade from public discourse.

The shift "appears to have started more than a week ago," predating the latest email reveals from FBI director James Comey, and Hatzius says the diminished gap "has reopened a potential path to victory for Trump, albeit a narrow one." All that said, even after adjusting Clinton's state polling numbers for a smaller gap in national trackers, Hatzius says she "still appears likely to win more than the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the White House," given that the reliably Democratic states account for 263 votes, leaving Clinton only in need of a few battleground wins.

Price action 

The three major U.S. equity markets have consistently declined since the week of October 28 alongside equally-consistent increases in the "risk measuring" CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), though it is difficult to untangle trades related to the ongoing earnings season from external developments, including the tightening election polls and Wednesday's incrementally more hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve. "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.