OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +0.50% and European stocks are up +1.12% ahead of the results of the ECB's policy meeting. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.18%, Hong Kong +0.72%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.56%, Australia +1.20%, Singapore +0.95%, South Korea +1.02%, India +0.25%. Emerging-market stocks stabilized and a rally in the Turkish lira has led emerging-market currencies higher ahead of an expected dovish stance by ECB President Draghi at his press conference later today. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) is up +0.54%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.62%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.49%) is up +0.33%. March copper (HGH14 +0.50%) is up +0.60%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.10% after German Dec factory orders unexpectedly declined. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.

German Dec factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase, and on an annual basis Dec factory orders rose +6.0% y/y, a slower pace than expectations of +7.2% y/y.

UK Jan Halifax house prices rose +1.1% m/m and +7.3% y/y, slightly higher than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +7.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -13,000 to 335,000, reversing most of last week's increase of +19,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims are expected to show a small increase of +3,000 to 2.994 million following last week's decline of -16,000 to 2.991 million. Today's Dec trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to -$36.0 billion from -$34.3 billion in November.

There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include General Motors (consensus $0.87), Kellogg (0.82), Aetna (1.36), Cummins (1.97), News Corp (0.19), FMC Technologies (0.65), VeriSign (0.60), and Expedia (0.85). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Aetna (AET +1.50%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.34, below consensus of $1.36.

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY +0.05%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, higher than consensus of $1.34.

Assurant (AIZ +0.74%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $1.42, better than consensus of $1.41.

Green Mountain (GMCR +0.92%) soared over 40% in after-hours trading after Coca-Cola (KO +0.35%) said it will buy a 10% stake in the company for $1.25 billion.

Everest Re (RE +0.11%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of $6.28, well above consensus of $4.97.

Con-way (CNW -0.51%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 23 cents, stronger than consensus of 21 cents.

Standard Pacific (SPF +0.12%) reported Q4 EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 14 cents.

CBRE Group (CBG -0.22%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, better than consensus of 66 cents.

Disney (DIS +1.00%) rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS ex-items of $1.04, well ahead of consensus of 92 cents.

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD +0.60%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -1 cents, worse than consensus of a 2 cent gain.

Mettler-Toledo (MTD -0.82%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.82, better than consensus of $3.74.

Allstate (ALL -0.70%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.76, well above consensus of $1.38.

Prudential (PRU +0.24%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.20, weaker than consensus of $2.23.

Akamai (AKAM +2.00%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, higher than consensus of 52 cents.

Twitter (TWTR -0.53%) reported Q4 EPS of 2 cents, better than consensus of a -2 cent loss and then said it sees 2014 revenue of $1.15 billion-$1.2 billion, above consensus $1.13 billion.

Cincinnati Financial (CINF -0.32%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, better than consensus of 69 cents.

Fiserv FISV reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, below consensus of 81 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +8.75 points (+0.50%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday fell to a 3-1/4 month low after Jan ADP employment rose +175,000, less than expectations of +185,000 and the smallest increase in 5 months. Stock prices recovered, however, and settled only modestly lower after the Jan ISM non-manufacturing index rose +1.0 to 54.0, better than expectations of +0.7 to 53.7. Another negative for stocks was the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that the Fed may have to quicken the pace of tapering QE3 if the economy improves as he expects. Closes: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.03%, Nasdaq 100 -0.44%.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks erased an early decline and moved higher. T-note prices were also hurt by the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that an improving U.S. economy may "warrant a quicker tapering of bond purchases" by the Fed. Closes: TYH4 -8.50, FVH4 -3.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.074 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0014 (-0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03 (+0.03%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected Jan ADP employment report of +175,000, and (2) a rebound in stock prices from their worst levels, which reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. Closes: Dollar index -0.085 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.00154 (+0.11%), USD/JPY -0.204 (-0.20%).

Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) this morning is up +53 cents (+0.34%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.0165 (+0.62%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher. Supportive factors for crude included (1) the +440,000 bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, well below expectations for a +2.270 million bbl build, (2) the +505,000 bbl increase in weekly gasoline stockpiles, only about half of expectations of +920,000 bbl, and (3) the fall in Jan OPEC crude production to a 2-1/2 yr low of 29.888 million bpd. Closes: CLH4 +0.19 (+0.20%), RBH4 +0.0382 (+1.47%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/06/2014

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/06/2014