Backtesting Analysis On Petroleo Brasileiro

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) has traded down for eight consecutive sessions. I backtested the stock to find out if there was any kind of trading edge in buying the stock for a short term bounce. Here are the highlights of my analysis:

  • PBR has been trading down for the last 8 consecutive sessions;
  • PBR is trading above the 200-day SMA;
  • After similar occurrences in the past PBR has rallied over the next the next 3, 4 (T+3 and T+4) trading sessions on average 2.42% and 3.54% respectively with winning rates of 55% and 73%;
  • Over the last 5 years, a similar sequence has occurred 11 times;
  • Please remember that "on average" does not mean "every single time";


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