Ascend Wellness: Analysts Forecast A 146% Upside Within 12 Months

TM Editors' note: This article discusses a penny stock and/or microcap. Such stocks are easily manipulated; do your own careful due diligence.

Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (CSE: AAWH.U) (OTCQX: AAWH) reported its financial results on Tuesday, March 14th for the three months ending December 31, 2022 (Q4). All results below are in U.S. dollars and compared with the previous quarter.

About Ascend Wellness

  • AAWH is a multi-state operator (MSO) with assets in six states including Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania,
  • operates a total of 26 dispensaries in those states plus another 4 outlets in Maryland subject to regulatory approval, and
  • has 3 in-house brands (Simply Herb, Ozone, and Ozone Reserve).

Q4 Financial Highlights

  • Net Revenue: +0.2% to $134.5M
    • Retail: +1.8% to $84.3M
    • Wholesale: -2.4% to $50.2M
  • Adj. Gross Profit: +5.9% to $53.6M
  • Sales/Admin Exp.: +5.6% to $36.1M
  • Adj. EBITDA: +1.5% to $282M
  • Adj. EBITDA Margin: 25.1% from 25.0%
  • Net Income (Loss): -10.7% to $(15.1)M
  • Cash on Hand: -18.9% to $74.1M
  • Total Debt: +17.1% to $256.5M
  • For additional Q4 2022 Earnings Presentation go here.

Operational Highlights

  • In just 4 years Ascend has leapfrogged its competition to have:
    • the highest average revenue per dispensary,
    • the highest annual adjusted EBITDA growth (+17% year over year), and
    • the 6th largest MSO by adjusted EBITDA

Stock Performance

  • Ascend's stock price declined 80% in 2022 compared to 72% for the remaining 11 constituents in the American Cannabis MSO Stocks Index,
  • declined a further 7.7% as of March 10th compared to 6.4% for the adjusted Index and
  • another 2.5% so far this week.

Analyst Forecasts

  • The 2 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Ascend Wellness Holdings LLC in the last 3 months have:
    • an average price target is $2.88 (a high forecast of $4.00 and a low forecast of $1.75)
    • representing a 146% change from today's (March 14th) closing price of $1.17.

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Disclosure: None

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