Apple's Blockbuster Quarter: Revenue Tops $100BN, Record China Sales, Across The Board Beats

On the back of disappointing earnings from Facebook and Netflix, AAPL stock dipped into its earnings release, but as the company's stellar results just showed this may have been a bit premature, because Tim Cook's company just reported blockbuster earnings including its first-ever $100BN quarter, around in its iPhone 12 release quarter.

Here are the details:

  • Q1 Rev. $111.44B, beating expectations of $103.12B, and up 21%from $91.8 billion Y/Y. This, as expected, was the company's first-ever $100BN+ quarter.
  • Q1 EPS $1.68, beating expectations of $1.42, and up 35% Y/Y
  • Q1 iPhone Revenue $65.60B, beating expectations of $60.33B
  • Q1 Products Rev. $95.68B, beating expectations of $88.21B

Some more details from the quarter:

  • Q1 Wearables, Home & Accessories $12.97B, Est. $11.84B
  • Q1 Mac Revenue $8.68B, Est. $8.86B
  • Q1 iPad Revenue $8.44B, Est. $7.57B

Tim Cook gave some additional numbers, noting that AAPL now has an active installed base of 1.65bln devices, of which more than 1 billion iPhones; perhaps more importantly, AAPL has 620 million paid subscribers now as part of its ecosystem.

Of note: Mac sales were strong yet not strong enough to beat estimates despite soaring laptop sales which have surged during work and study from home. As Bloomberg notes, "there might be a bit of disappointment with that one". Still, solid growth and a high number, and sales will likely skyrocket this year with redesigns coming to nearly the entire line.

One potential counter: as Bloomberg notes, "one of the major factors weighing on hardware sales has been global shortages of components. That might be what’s hurt Mac sales. Investors will be listening in closely on that front. Perhaps Apple’s switch to supplying itself with processors will alleviate that risk going forward?"

On the positive side, the Wearables, Home, and Accessories boost is due to major updates in that line, including two new Apple Watch models, the AirPods Max headphones, and the HomePod mini. Apple went all out on accessories this past quarter

One potential negative: even in the company's record quarter - the one where the iPhone 12 was introduced - the company still can't meet its iPhone sales hit back in 2016-2017, confirming that Apple's iPhone is no longer the must-have accessory it once was.

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This may explain why as Walter Piecyk notes, "that's the first time AAPL R&D/revenue has dropped y/y since the June quarter in 2015, the year of the iPhone 6."

The closely watched Services soared to $15.76BN, beating expectations of $14.89B...

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... and up 23.9% from the $12.7BN a year ago.

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Service revenue is likely to remain strong, likely due to the App Store, Apple Music, and iCloud subscriptions. Furthermore, the newest offerings - Fitness+, TV+, Arcade, News+, and Apple Card - all still appear to not have any material impact on the company.

Also remarkable was the surge in Chinese revenues, which soared by a whopping 57% Y/Y...

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... to a record $21.31BN from $13.6Bn a year ago.

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Discussing the quarter, Tim Cook said that “this quarter for Apple wouldn’t have been possible without the tireless and innovative work of every Apple team member worldwide. We’re gratified by the enthusiastic customer response to the unmatched line of cutting-edge products that we delivered across a historic holiday season. We are also focused on how we can help the communities we’re a part of build back strongly and equitably, through efforts like our Racial Equity and Justice Initiative as well as our multi-year commitment to invest $350 billion throughout the United States.”

Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO, also chimed in saying that the "December quarter business performance was fueled by double-digit growth in each product category, which drove all-time revenue records in each of our geographic segments and an all-time high for our installed base of active devices. These results helped us generate record operating cash flow of $38.8 billion. We also returned over $30 billion to shareholders during the quarter as we maintain our target of reaching a net cash neutral position over time.”

And in keeping with this, Apple’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.205 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on February 11, 2021, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 8, 2021.

In his take on the quarter, Bloomberg analyst Anand Srinivsana said “No major surprises here - iPhone was great -- services great -- drove margins higher. China did well. PC units have been strong but disproportionately driven by the low end. Macs are about 2x the average selling price of the average PC."

And some more color from Shannon Cross of Cross Research:

“It was an extremely strong quarter, what’s likely weighing on the stock at the moment is that they didn’t give guidance. Clearly iPhone was the strength, China was up significantly, reflecting that consumers in China were waiting for 5G iPhones.”

“As always, there are questions about the sustainability of the App Store and services. Clearly the strength this quarter shows continued solid growth.”

“Apple is continuing to benefit from work from home. Keep in mind last time there was a stimulus, iPhone shipments increased.”

One final potential disappointment: Apple once again didn’t provide investors with a forecast for the current period. That’ll make every statement on the earnings call all the more important as analysts will beg for a clue as to what to project going forward.

Perhaps indicative of just how priced to perfection Apple was, however, the stock has barely budged and after some initial kneejerk moves both lower and higher, it was virtually unchanged from the close.

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Indeed, as Bloomberg explains the lack of reaction, "expectations had been sky high for the company on suggestions of a new iPhone “supercycle,” spurring a stock surge in recent months. Apple also recently introduced other new devices, including an updated Apple Watch, and demand increased for iPads, Mac computers, and services from consumers working and studying from home during the pandemic."

So yes - amazing quarter, but not that amazing to push the stock to a new permanent plateau.

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