Trading volume is telling a truer story than price; gains on lower volume, losses on higher volume.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) posted a loss on higher volume distribution. Today's loss came with a new 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and a bearish cross in +DI/-DI. The large red candlestick from last week is calling, and an undercut of the 50-day MA is now looking like the next move for the index.

The S&P looked like it was about to break to new highs, and kill the bearishness of the dominant red candlestick from last week, but bears aren't done yet. Today's volume registered as higher volume distribution. The 50-day MA is the next target.

It was a similar story for the Nasdaq. The index tagged resistance and then did a higher volume sell off (confirmed distribution). There was a 'sell' trigger for On-Balance-Volume. Look for a challenge of the 50-day MA.

On the Bitcoin front, key support of $110K was lost today, with trendline support from the swing lows of 2024 next to test. Given the historic volatility of this asset, don't be surprised if this makes it back to $75K.

My next update will be next week. In the interval, watch how indices react to 50-day MA tests. If bulls are going to get the new highs they crave, they need to do something at 50-day MAs.

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