Softs Report - Friday, Nov. 13

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower on follow through speculative selling. The USDA reports released Tuesday were considered neutral to negative for futures prices. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. Increased rains can hurt Cotton quality, but so far the quality appears to be good. The weekly export sales report showed weaker demand. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 64.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 93,631 bales, from 85,831 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 236,800 bales this year and 14,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 20,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6810, 6780, and 6670 December, with resistance of 6930, 7080, and 7110 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on follow through speculative buying. Futures are now testing the next resistance area just above 118.00 on the charts. Tropical Storm Eta did little damage to fruit or trees as it passed near the coast of southern and western Florida. It will cross the northern part of the state this weekend starting out as a hurricane. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 121.00 January. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 112.00 January, with resistance at 121.00, 122.00, and 125.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London with London the leader to the upside. Trends turned up in London on the daily charts. London has been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should continue for another week or so, then the weather should turn better with drier conditions. The harvest there has been interrupted with all of the storms passing through. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. It has been very wet in Central America due to a hurricane late last week. The weather is good in Colombia but a little dry in Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 1.192 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 108.72 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 108.00, 104.00, and 102.00 December, and resistance is at 111.00, 112.00, and 115.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1410 January. Support is at 1370, 1340, and 1330 January, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1430 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher as the US Dollar moved lower. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns for both Sugar and Ethanol. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. Petroleum prices have rebounded lately but remain at low levels overall. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Scattered showers are falling now to improve Sugarcane growing conditions in Brazil, but southern areas remain too dry. The harvest of cane has been fast but is slower now. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so prices will need to rally in the world market before exporters can become involved and start selling. Sugar exports from India do not happen without the subsidy. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1400, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1500, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 401.00, 397.00, and 391.00 March, and resistance is at 409.00, 412.00, and 415.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were mixed, with New York lower and London mostly a little higher on news that Callebrut said that its sales volume of chocolate had returned to close to pandemic levels. The weekly charts show that downtrends are still in place, but daily chart trends are sideways. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.275 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2310, 2290, and 2260 December. Support is at 2290, 2240, and 2170 December, with resistance at 2320, 2420, and 2470 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 December, with resistance at 1630, 1650, and 1670 December.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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