Short-Term Trend

It was bad day in the stock market, but the PMO Index didn't budge. So, it is too early to declare a new short-term downtrend. Besides, the market has been on a good run higher, and was probably ready for some selling. 

However, it isn't too early to be looking for signs of a new short-term downtrend with the PMO at the top of its range for quite a few days.

Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is negative, but there is a whiff of strength.

The medium-term trend is up as of Jan-4. 

The short-term trend is up as of Dec-26.Looking for signs of the next short-term downtrend.

The medium-term trend for bond prices is up as of Nov-16 (prices higher, yields lower).

Investing Themes:

Cash
Dividend-Payers

Strategy During a Bull Market:

  • Buy large cap stocks and ETFs at the lows of the medium or short-term market trends.
  • Buy small cap growth stocks on breaks to new highs in the early stages of market trends.
  • Reduce buying when the market trend is at the top of the range.
  • Take partial profits when the market uptrend starts to struggle at the highs.
  • The cardinal rule is never invest based on personal politics. The stock market can do well regardless of which political party is in control.

 

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

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