Selloff Day Two

The US reported a higher employment figure, 1.37 mn people in work, than the forecast 1.32 mn for Aug. The level of unemployment is well down, at 8.4%. That's the good news. The bad is that our trade deficit in July hit a 12-year high as imports replace what would have been made in the USA.

For the record, I did not predict problems for US stocks if the election results are hard to interpret. I quoted Jack Hough of Barron's. Today Pres. Trump suggested his voters should vote twice, postal, and in person. This is illegal and advising it is illegal.

Some good news. The Lancet, the UK's most respected medical journal, says Russia's Sputnik vaccine against corona-virus has no adverse effects and appears to stimulate creation of antibodies. Naturally, this news took down more sedate pharmaceutical stocks playing by the rules, with trials including placebos and large numbers, which the Russians didn't bother with.

Day two of the selloff briefly saw a gain in the DJIA, but once the market fully opened the rout continued. One reason for the rally failing is that we face a 3-day weekend. Another is the revelation of who lost the most on Thursday. It was Softbank (SFTBY), the Japanese financial group owned by Masayoshi Son and its allies who were heavy buyers of long options on US tech stocks which cratered yesterday and today. SFTBF fell 1.7% here today but there is more to come.

Israel is closed today for its normal weekend, so its shares are being clobbered as before you can arbitrage movements, you have to survive Sunday and Monday. Hong Kong, which also is closed now, fell when it was open. Since Softbank's Son is an ethnic Korean, some of our holdings from there are also down, but there are other reasons discussed below.

The most terrifying news today is that Smith & Wesson (SWBI) more doubled the sale of guns and ammo in the last quarter compared to 2019.

Finance

*The spill-off may help traditional Japanese finance groups recently purchased by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and me. So far Sumitomo (SMFG) is up 1% and Mitsubishi (MSBHF) up 0.7% but I don't follow the other 3.

*Hong Kong listed Tencent (TCEHY) is believed to have been a Son long play and its shares fell 4.6% today.

Safe banks like Hang Seng (HSNGF of Hong Kong), Santander (SAN of Spain which gained also from the Bankia-CaixaBank merger and good results from Chile), State St (STT of Boston) or Banco Latino (BLX of Panama) are up for a change while the Bay Street gang from Canada are under pressure. Some European financial like Sampo Oij (SAXPY) and Investor (IVSBF) fell on suspicion they hung on Son's coattails.

*Close end funds Japan Small Cap (JOF), Goldman Sachs Active Beta (GSJY), and Korea Fund (KF) are down for obvious reasons but so are other bond funds we own like Lazard Global, LGI, and Macquarie First Trust (MFD). LGI turns out to be majority-owned by fatcats: the City of London, a fund of closed-end funds with 36.66% of its shares; Lazard parent 15.76%; 1607 Capital Partners of Virginia 10.61%; and Bill Gates 6.56%.

*Tom Herzfeld's CUBA (Herzfeld Caribbean Fund) lost 25% in value in the fiscal year to June 30th and its share price lost 27.5% because the discount from net asset value rose 22.26%. It was tipped by our experienced bond-manager but I opted not to listen to him. It will announce its divvie on 9/11.

*Canadian General Investments (CGRIF), a CEF, reported 12-mo NAV to Aug. 31 was up 17.9% to C$42.86. CGRIF greatly exceed the S&P benchmark rise of -1.1% and most others as well. It uses leverage via loans and preferred shares to boost its returns although it actually cut back on this in 2020. Its share price only rose 8.7% in the year, because of the Canada discount, to C$27.80.

*Gold is down along with Kirkland Lake of Canada. KL is our second-worst performer.

*Fibra Uno (FBASF) of Mexico, always volatile, lost 2.6% today. It's unlikely to have invested with Son.

Tech & Tel

*Nintendo fell 0.5% despite announcing a new “retro” console for playing old games and some new ones. For a change, this was not reported by Abhimanyu Sisodia from India but by Eduardo Garcia from Mexico. The editor of Sentidocomun.co.mex may have children at the game-playing age. NPSNY is Japanese and may have been a Son target.

*Mercado Libre (MELI) was our worst performer but then recovered. Microsoft (MSFT) also recovered after dropping at the opening.

*Nokia (NOK) of Finland is up on news that it sold fiber optics old tech to China.

*Infosys (INFY, sold) is buying unlisted Kaleidoscope Innovation, maker of smart products for medical, consumer, and industrial uses.

Oilpatch

*Pembina Pipeline (PBA) of Canada is a winner from the US Administration fast-trck review of oil and gas projects. It plans to create an NGL export port at Jordan Cove in Oregon. Its stock is down 2.22%.

*Schlumberger Ltd (SLB) will report on its Q3 Oct. 16. It is up 2.51% because it is being recommended for its clean energy initiatives by the Houston Chronicle.

*Bermuda's Hoëgh LNG issued preferred and common shares to its officers yesterday. We own the prefs, HMLP-A.

*Electric vehicles are in trouble because a new battery using solid silicon in place of graphites and no cobalt is being developed by Siemens mit Volkswagen. Despite this NIO was tipped as a buy with a TP of $25 today by Crédit Suisse. It is backed by the same Chinese city as VW.

Pharma

*No Virginia, there is no reason to sell off your shares in pharma because there are new hopes. Roche (RHHBY) today got FDA okay to offer a combo flu test on its automated 6800 and 8800 cobas systems, looking for SARS, Covid-19, and seasonal flu A and B with one test.

*Beigene (BGNE) is suffering insider selling, in the US. Its Chinese operations are non-piratical.

*Teva (TEVA) is down as usual on Fridays, but more seriously, by 2.52%.

*Compugen will present its drugs at 2 virtual conferences on Sept. 16 (Morgan Stanley) and Sept. 22 (Oppenheimer). CGEN antibodies target PVRIG (COM701) and TIGIT (COM902) in solid tumors.

*Dr. Reddy's fellow because Amarin is appealing to overthrow the patent decision allowing RDY to make generic Vascepa for treating excess blood cholesterol. RDY began US generic sales of JNJ's Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Concerta in 4 dosage levels, where US sales top $1.15 bn.

Utes and metals

*E.On SE (EONGY) is up on spillover from the French move on utes.

*Metals are up because they are used when economies rebound. Chilean copper miner Antofagasta is up and so is UK refiner of platinum group metals Johnson Matthey. ANFGF, JMPLY.

Our Global Investing website is due to go live next Tuesday. Monday is a holiday. Cross your fingers. The job was 75% paid for in 2019 but nothing was done until July.

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