Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April (May comes on June 24th):

First the scary:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Then the scarier:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The 3-month moving average for production and income component of the CFNAI is now at 2016 levels. Of course, 2016 did not coincide with a recession. But the term spread was solidly upward sloping then, and most NBER BCDC key indicators were rising.