Week 13 of 2019 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors rolling averages remain in contraction.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) contracted 5.0 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility - and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors degraded from -5.86 % to -5.92 %.

When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.

The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

.Intermodal transport (containers or trailers on rail cars) growth has been relatively strong over the 12 months - but in 2019 this portion of rail transport has weakened and the year-to-date growth is now in contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

A summary for this week from the AAR:

U.S. railroads originated 957,144 carloads in March 2019, down 8.9 percent, or 93,616 carloads, from March 2018. U.S. railroads also originated 1,065,790 containers and trailers in March 2019, down 1.5 percent, or 16,387 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in March 2019 were 2,022,934, down 5.2 percent, or 110,003 carloads and intermodal units from March 2018.

In March 2019, four of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with March 2018. These included: petroleum & petroleum products, up 8,290 carloads or 21.1 percent; motor vehicles & parts, up 1,215 carloads or 1.8 percent; and nonmetallic minerals, up 927 carloads or 6.3 percent. Commodities that saw declines in March 2019 from March 2018 included: coal, down 64,804 carloads or 19.1 percent; grain, down 11,837 carloads or 12.6 percent; and crushed stone, sand & gravel, down 8,732 carloads or 9.1 percent.

Excluding coal, carloads were down 28,812 carloads, or 4.1 percent, in March 2019 from March 2018. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were down 16,975 carloads, or 2.8 percent.

Total U.S. carload traffic for the first three months of 2019 was 3,195,609 carloads, down 3.1 percent, or 100,800 carloads, from the same period last year; and 3,476,457 intermodal units, down 0.6 percent, or 19,892 containers and trailers, from last year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 13 weeks of 2019 was 6,672,066 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.8 percent compared to last year.

Week Ending March 30, 2019

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 509,958 carloads and intermodal units, down 4.6 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending March 30 were 241,906 carloads, down 8.9 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 268,052 containers and trailers, down 0.4 percent compared to 2018.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2018. They included petroleum and petroleum products, up 2,756 carloads, to 12,658; miscellaneous carloads, up 1,175 carloads, to 10,579; and chemicals, up 102 carloads, to 33,809. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2018 included coal, down 21,769 carloads, to 60,984; nonmetallic minerals, down 2,409 carloads, to 34,494; and grain, down 1,487 carloads, to 22,565.

The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.

[click on graph below to enlarge]