Q1 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard

Sixty-seven percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q1 2020 EPS. Of the 143 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 59% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 2% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 39% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q1 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is 33.4%.

The Q1 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 0.9%. Fifty-seven percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations and 43% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

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Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail earnings this week

As concerns of the coronavirus outbreak heightened, more retailers withdrew their earnings guidance. It is evident from the retail earnings results that with shoppers quarantined and working from home, consumer buying patterns have changed.

Here are the main themes during Q1 retail earnings results:

  1. Consumers are making fewer trips to the stores
  2. As a result, omnichannel selling is key to retailers’ survival
  3. Even retail winners have seen huge spike in expenses during the pandemic
  4. Consumers are all about DIY and improving the stay at home experience

The latest Refinitiv/Ipsos Consumer Confidence reading suggests there is still a lot of concern around the long term outlook and potential fear around resurgence of future waves of the virus. This is reflected in the Refinitiv earnings forecast suggesting that earnings are expected to come in mostly negative in Q1 and Q2.

Here are the Same Store Sales and Earnings estimates for retailers reporting earnings this week:

Exhibit 2: Same-Store Sales and Earnings Estimates/Results – Week Of May 20, 2020

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Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

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