Preliminary Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 15 And 22
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | ||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | |
| Week of February 15 | ||
| February 16 | ||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 3.5 |
| February 17 | ||
| Retail Sales - January | 0.6% | -0.7 |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.8 | -1.4 |
| Producer Price Index - January | 0.3% | 0.3 |
| Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Industrial Production - January | 0.4% | 1.6 |
| Manufacturing Output | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Capacity Utilization | 74.8 | 74.5 |
| Business Iinventories - December | 0.3% | 0.5 |
| February 18 | ||
| Housing Starts - January | 1.650M | 1.669 |
| Building Permits | 1.670 | 1.709 |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | 20.00 | 26.5 |
| Export Prices - January | 1.0% | 1.1 |
| Import Prices | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| NAHB Index - February | 83 | 83 |
| February 19 | ||
| Existing Home Sales - January | 6.560M | 6.760 |
| Week of February 22 | ||
| February 22 | ||
| Leading Indicators - January | 0.3% | 0.3 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 8.5 | 7.0 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| February 23 | ||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - December | ||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.8% | 1.1 |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 9.9 | 9.1 |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - December | 0.8% | 1.0 |
| Consumer Confidence Index - February | 90.0 | 89.3 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 14 | 14 |
| February 24 | ||
| New Home Sales - Jan | 855K | 842 |
| February 25 | ||
| Durable Goods Orders - January | 1.5% | 0.3 |
| GDP - Q4 (p) | 4.0% | 4.0 |
| Pending Home Sales - January | 125.5 | 125.5 |
| February 26 | ||
| International Trade in Goods - January (a) | -$83.2B | -82.5 |
| Personal Income - January | 11.0% | 0.6 |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Chicago PMI - February | 60.0 | 63.8 |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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