Preliminary Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 15 And 22

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.  
  Forecast Prior Observation
Week of February 15    
February 16    
NY Fed Manufacturing Index 5 3.5
     
February 17    
Retail Sales - January 0.6% -0.7
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.8 -1.4
     
Producer Price Index - January 0.3% 0.3
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) 0.2 0.4
     
Industrial Production - January 0.4% 1.6
Manufacturing Output 0.5 0.9
Capacity Utilization 74.8 74.5
     
Business Iinventories - December 0.3% 0.5
     
February 18    
Housing Starts - January 1.650M 1.669
Building Permits 1.670 1.709
     
Philadelphia Fed Survey 20.00 26.5
     
Export Prices - January 1.0% 1.1
Import Prices 1.0 0.9
     
NAHB Index - February  83 83
     
February 19    
Existing Home Sales - January 6.560M 6.760
     
Week of February 22    
February 22    
Leading Indicators - January 0.3% 0.3
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 8.5 7.0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.40 0.52
     
February 23    
S&P Case/Shiller Index - December    
Twenty City M/M 0.8% 1.1
Twenty City M/M - SA 1.2 1.4
Twenty City Y/Y 9.9 9.1
     
FHFA Housing Market Index - December 0.8% 1.0
Consumer Confidence Index - February 90.0 89.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14 14
     
February 24    
New Home Sales - Jan 855K 842
     
February 25    
Durable Goods Orders - January 1.5% 0.3
     
GDP - Q4 (p) 4.0% 4.0
Pending Home Sales - January 125.5 125.5
     
February 26    
International Trade in Goods - January (a) -$83.2B -82.5
     
Personal Income - January 11.0% 0.6
Personal Spending 0.5 -0.2
     
Chicago PMI - February 60.0 63.8

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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