Preliminary Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Feb. 22 And March 1
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
| Forecast | Prior Observation | ||
| Week of February 22 | |||
| February 22 | |||
| Leading Indicators - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 8.5 | 7.0 | |
| February 23 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - December | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.8% | 1.1 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.2 | 1.4 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 9.9 | 9.1 | |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - December | 0.8% | 1.0 | |
| Consumer Confidence Index - February | 90.0 | 89.3 | |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 14 | 14 | |
| February 24 | |||
| New Home Sales - Jan | 855K | 842 | |
| February 25 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - January | 0.9% | 0.3 | |
| GDP - Q4 (p) | 4.0% | 4.0 | |
| Pending Home Sales - January | 125.5 | 125.5 | |
| February 26 | |||
| International Trade in Goods - January (a) | -$81.8B | -83.2 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (a) - January | 0.6% | 0.3 | |
| Personal Income - January | 11.0% | 0.6 | |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | -0.2 | |
| Chicago PMI - February | 60.0 | 63.8 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r) | 77.5 | 76.2 | |
| Week of March 1 | |||
| March 1 | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - February | 58.9 | 58.7 | |
| Construction Spending - January | 0.8 | 1.0 | |
| March 2 | |||
| Auto Sales - February | 16.6K | 16.6 | |
| Car Sales | 3.7 | 3.7 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.9 | 12.9 | |
| March 3 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - February | 100K | 174 | |
| ISM Services Index | 58.7 | 58.7 | |
| March 4 | |||
| Productivity - Q(4) - r | -4.8 | -4.8 | |
| Unit Labor Cost | 6.800 | 6.8 | |
| Factory Orders - January | 1.0% | 0.7 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.9 | 0.3 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 1.0 | 1.1 | |
| March 5 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - February | 120K | 49 | |
| Private | 100 | 6 | |
| Manufacturing | 20 | -10 | |
| Unemployment | 6.4% | 6.3 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.9HR | 35.0 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.2 | |
| International Trade - January | -$65.6B | -66.6 | |
| Consumer Credit - January | $12.0B | 9.7 |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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