Philadelphia Manufacturing Hitting The Breaks

This morning, the Philadelphia Fed released its monthly reading on the region’s manufacturing sector. The headline index fell to 11.1, which was the second monthly decline in a row and larger than consensus expectations for a drop to 20. While the still positive number indicates further growth in the region’s manufacturing sector, it is also the slowest pace of growth in the last six months.

On Tuesday, the New York Fed’s monthly manufacturing report showed some slowing down in the manufacturing sector as the headline number dropped, though under the hood not all was lost as most sub-indices managed to rise month over month. The same cannot be said for the neighboring Philadelphia Fed region. Breadth in the report was very weak as only two indices (Delivery Times and Inventories) managed to move higher in December. The moves higher for those indices are also not necessarily good developments as they indicate higher inventories with longer lead times. Most other indices fell double digits with the declines of some in the bottom 1% of all monthly moves. On the bright side, every index did remain in expansionary territory (readings above zero) meaning growth has continued, but there was a significant slowdown.

One of the areas to have seen the sharpest drop was New Orders. Whereas last month the index for New Orders came in at a near-record 37.9, December saw a huge drop down to a barely expansionary reading of 2.3. That 35.6 point drop was the largest decline since the 49.1 point and 55.4 point declines in March and April, respectively. It also ranks in the bottom 1% of all monthly moves going back to the start of the index in 1980. The same applies to the index of Unfilled Orders. Last month’s reading was the strongest since March of 1973, but the over 20 point decline in December resulted in a reading that points to much less rapid growth in unfilled orders than the previous month. That decline also ranks around the bottom 1% of all monthly moves.

1 2
View single page >> |

Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research ...

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.