Perspectives + Prospects - Saturday, May 2

The Market Week in Review

Despite the GDP revealing that the U.S. economy shrunk by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2019, the U.S. stock market ended the week slightly higher amid optimism for a coronavirus treatment. Interest rates moved higher, as the ten-year treasury yield rose from 0.60% to 0.64%. However, shorter-term yields fell slightly as the Fed leaves the federal funds rate near zero.

Consequently, the spread between the ten-year treasury yield and the two-year treasury yield widened from 0.38% to 0.44%. The price of gold fell over 2.0% to $1,707 an ounce, as demand for the haven metal falls. The price of crude oil rose nearly 10% on the week, as the recent agreement between major oil producers to cut oil production begins.

Year-to-Date Return (as of 05/01/2020)U.S. Large-CapU.S. Small-CapDevelopedEmergingReal EstateBond MarketGoldOilJan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Mar-16-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%

x U.S. Large-Cap U.S. Small-Cap Developed Emerging Real Estate Bond Market Gold Oil
Dec-31 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0
Jan-02 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% -1.2% 0.1% 0.007 0.002
Jan-03 0.2% -0.3% -0.4% 0.6% -0.6% 0.5% 0.021 0.033
Jan-06 0.5% -0.2% -0.1% 0.4% -0.4% 0.4% 0.031 0.036
Jan-07 0.3% -0.5% -0.2% 0.3% -1.6% 0.3% 0.035 0.027
Jan-08 0.8% -0.2% -0.1% 0.8% -1.3% 0.1% 0.028 -0.024
Jan-09 1.4% -0.1% 0.3% 1.3% -1.3% 0.3% 0.022 -0.025
Jan-10 1.1% -0.5% 0% 1.8% -0.5% 0.4% 0.028 -0.033
Jan-13 1.8% 0.2% 0.6% 3.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.02 -0.049
Jan-14 1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 2.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.02 -0.046
Jan-15 2% 1% 0.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.025 -0.053
Jan-16 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 2.6% 2% 0.6% 0.024 -0.042
Jan-17 3.1% 2.1% 1.4% 3.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.026 -0.041
Jan-21 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 3% 0.8% 0.027 -0.045
Jan-22 3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.027 -0.071
Jan-23 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.03 -0.09
Jan-24 2.1% -0.2% 0.2% -0.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.036 -0.113
Jan-27 0.6% -1.3% -2% -3.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.043 -0.13
Jan-28 1.6% -0.5% -1.1% -2.9% 2.8% 1.4% 0.033 -0.124
Jan-29 1.5% -1.1% -1.1% -2.5% 2.4% 1.7% 0.039 -0.127
Jan-30 1.7% -1.1% -1.3% -3.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.039 -0.146
Jan-31 -0.1% -3.1% -3% -5.5% 1.2% 2% 0.045 -0.156
Feb-03 0.8% -2% -2.7% -4.9% 1.6% 1.9% 0.038 -0.179
Feb-04 2.4% -0.5% -1.1% -2.6% 2.6% 1.6% 0.025 -0.188
Feb-05 3.4% 1% -0.1% -2% 2.7% 1.4% 0.026 -0.169
Feb-06 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% -2.1% 3% 1.5% 0.031 -0.166
Feb-07 3.1% -0.5% -0.8% -3.4% 3% 1.8% 0.034 -0.176
Feb-10 3.9% 0.1% -0.5% -2.8% 4.1% 2% 0.037 -0.188
Feb-11 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% -1.6% 4.9% 1.8% 0.033 -0.182
Feb-12 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% -0.3% 5.6% 1.7% 0.032 -0.162
Feb-13 4.8% 1.7% -0.2% -1.4% 6.2% 1.8% 0.038 -0.158
Feb-14 4.9% 1.3% -0.2% -1.6% 7.3% 1.9% 0.043 -0.148
Feb-18 4.7% 1.1% -0.9% -1.9% 7.2% 2% 0.056 -0.148
Feb-19 5.2% 1.6% -0.5% -1.1% 5.7% 2% 0.062 -0.127
Feb-20 4.9% 1.9% -1.2% -2.5% 7% 2.3% 0.067 -0.119
Feb-21 3.8% 0.9% -1.7% -2.8% 7.3% 2.5% 0.083 -0.126
Feb-24 0.4% -2.2% -5.5% -6.2% 5.8% 2.9% 0.092 -0.158
Feb-25 -2.7% -5.6% -7.1% -7% 3% 2.9% 0.073 -0.183
Feb-26 -3.2% -6.7% -7.1% -6.4% 1.9% 2.9% 0.077 -0.202
Feb-27 -7.4% -10% -9.9% -8.6% -3.6% 3% 0.078 -0.233
Feb-28 -8.1% -11.7% -10.4% -8.9% -5.9% 3.7% 0.038 -0.229
Mar-02 -4.2% -8.8% -9.2% -7.1% -1.9% 3.6% 0.044 -0.267
Mar-03 -6.7% -10.7% -10% -7.6% -2.1% 4.2% 0.077 -0.234
Mar-04 -3% -8.2% -7.5% -6.3% 1.6% 4.2% 0.079 -0.227
Mar-05 -6.2% -11.1% -9.9% -8.1% -0.6% 4.6% 0.102 -0.234
Mar-06 -8% -12.8% -11.2% -9.8% -2.3% 5.3% 0.103 -0.248
Mar-09 -15.4% -21.3% -18.5% -16.5% -9.8% 5.1% 0.104 -0.324
Mar-10 -11.2% -18.9% -15.4% -12.3% -6% 3.7% 0.081 -0.49
Mar-11 -15.7% -24% -19.8% -16.1% -11.7% 1.7% 0.077 -0.437
Mar-12 -23.9% -32.4% -28.8% -24.6% -20.6% -3.8% 0.034 -0.46
Mar-13 -16.9% -27.9% -24.3% -19.3% -13.7% 0.2% 0.003 -0.461
Mar-16 -26.4% -37.5% -32.5% -29% -29% 1.3% -0.009 -0.48
Mar-17 -22.7% -34.6% -29.4% -24.6% -24.9% -0.8% 0.005 -0.53
Mar-18 -27.1% -39.7% -33.6% -30.7% -32% -3.2% -0.015 -0.552
Mar-19 -26.6% -37.3% -32.6% -30.3% -31.8% -3.2% -0.034 -0.659
Mar-20 -29.6% -38.8% -33.3% -30% -35.2% -1.6% -0.02 -0.576
Mar-23 -31.6% -39.7% -34.4% -31.4% -38.2% 0.6% 0.024 -0.6
Mar-24 -25.1% -34.2% -28.5% -27% -32.6% 0.7% 0.073 -0.598
Mar-25 -24.1% -33.4% -26% -24.7% -29% 2% 0.059 -0.602
Mar-26 -19.5% -29.2% -22.8% -21.6% -24% 2.5% 0.072 -0.623
Mar-27 -22.1% -31.8% -25.2% -25.9% -23.9% 3% 0.065 -0.642
Mar-30 -19.7% -30.3% -23.7% -24.8% -22.3% 3.2% 0.07 -0.665
Mar-31 -20.8% -30.6% -24% -24.4% -24.2% 2.2% 0.036 -0.668
Apr-01 -24.5% -35.4% -27.4% -27.1% -29.1% 2.7% 0.046 -0.653
Apr-02 -22.9% -34.8% -26% -25% -28.9% 3.2% 0.063 -0.594
Apr-03 -24.2% -36.6% -27.4% -26.4% -29.9% 3.2% 0.068 -0.525
Apr-06 -18.9% -31.8% -23.5% -22.8% -24.7% 3.5% 0.098 -0.561
Apr-07 -18.8% -31.6% -23.1% -22.3% -24.1% 3.6% 0.092 -0.573
Apr-08 -16% -28.5% -22.4% -21.4% -18.9% 3.8% 0.082 -0.567
Apr-09 -14.4% -25% -20.7% -21.6% -14.3% 5% 0.11 -0.62
Apr-13 -15.4% -27.1% -21.3% -21.3% -17.9% 4.6% 0.13 -0.625
Apr-14 -12.9% -25.6% -19.9% -19.7% -15.6% 4.6% 0.138 -0.658
Apr-15 -14.9% -28.6% -22.5% -21.5% -19% 5.2% 0.133 -0.668
Apr-16 -14.5% -29.2% -22.4% -21% -19.9% 5.2% 0.132 -0.674
Apr-17 -12.1% -26% -20.2% -19.7% -17.4% 5.1% 0.11 -0.703
Apr-20 -13.5% -26.9% -21.4% -20.3% -20.4% 4.9% 0.118 -1.045
Apr-21 -16.2% -28.7% -23% -22.5% -21.9% 5% 0.11 -0.852
Apr-22 -14.3% -27.8% -21.6% -20.5% -20.7% 5% 0.132 -0.811
Apr-23 -14.3% -27.1% -21.7% -20.8% -21.3% 5.1% 0.143 -0.719
Apr-24 -13% -25.8% -20.9% -20.9% -21% 5.1% 0.138 -0.719
Apr-27 -11.5% -22.9% -19.8% -19.5% -18.3% 4.7% 0.131 -0.798
Apr-28 -11.8% -21.8% -19.2% -19.3% -17.6% 5% 0.126 -0.781
Apr-29 -9.3% -17.9% -17% -17.1% -16.4% 5.1% 0.132 -0.798
Apr-30 -10.4% -21% -18.7% -18.5% -17.4% 5% 0.111 -0.753
May-01 -12.9% -24.1% -20.5% -21.3% -20.2% 4.8% 0.119 -0.693
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