Perfect Storm For Bitcoin

The bitcoin halving is scheduled to occur in May 2020. Halvings happen about every four years, and each time, the amount of new bitcoin being mined is cut in half.

After this next halving, the reward for successfully mining a block will be reduced from 12.5 coins to 6.25 coins.

The “inflation rate” (percentage of new coins coming into the market) will go from 3.7% to 1.8%. That’s a big decrease in new supply.

In the past, halvings have been extremely bullish for bitcoin prices.

At the time of the first halving in 2012, bitcoin was trading around $15. It would reach a high for that cycle of $270 just 135 days later, as noted by Rekt Capital.

The second halving occurred in July 2016. And, as CCN reports, bitcoin prices went from $268 in July 2016 to $2,525 a year later.

Interestingly, there was a pullback of around 40% to 44% before each prior halving. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now: a 44% pullback from recent highs of $13,000.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Hat tip to Rekt Capital

The retracements (temporary price reversals within an overarching trend) before the previous two halvings provided an amazing buying opportunity.

Will the Halving Coincide With Financial Chaos?

The halving is a serious catalyst on its own, and I think it has the potential to power bitcoin much higher.

But I get the feeling that it won’t be the only thing driving bitcoin prices higher. I think the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government are going to be “helping” as well.

The Fed will be printing larger and larger amounts of money going forward. And with its new “not quantitative easing” program, the Federal Reserve is essentially now funding U.S. deficits.

It’s buying up $60 billion in Treasury bills per month, lowering interest rates and providing $87 billion of liquidity in the overnight repo market.

In July, I wrote a piece arguing that MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), or something a lot like it, is inevitable.

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