Gamma Risk & Extending Duration: Why You Should Pay Attention To Rolling Out In Time

Last week I mentioned: I’m a big believer in looking at IVR and portfolio theta to figure out when to take profits in positions that have the highest P/L %. To me, it’s about dissecting the whole picture because as long as you have attractive time decay in an underlying but declining IVR, why would you take it off or roll the position out in time as boosting your daily theta isn’t necessary? The better you understand high IVR, the wider your profit zone will be and the more profit you will generate. In that regard, selling short strangles isn’t about rolling the dice, it’s about trading consistently and letting time work for you.

Gamma Risk

But what’s at the heart of rolling out in time? Why does it make sense from the options Greeks’ standpoint? It’s about gamma risk, the risk you can’t see (compare this phenomenon with carbon monoxide intoxication, it’s hard to spot it which makes it fatal to your health if you don’t take precautionary measures).

Gamma tells us how the delta will change per change in the underlying share price. Theoretically, gamma is the highest for ATM options courtesy of their binary nature (50% chance of expiring in the money, 50% of expiring out of the money) and increases along the way and the more volatile the underlying, the lower your gamma risk will be.

This seems quite logical as the lower volatility is, the smaller the expected move is and thus the higher the impact of increasing volatility on the options prices and their Greeks. But I was talking about at-the-money options, not out-of-the-money options we’d like to sell for our short strangles. Along with theta and vega, gamma should eventually approach zero about 8 days before expiration based on static price action. However, tastytrade conducted a study with the 16 delta strangles showing us gamma risk actually increases because of the whipsawing price of the SPY.

(Source: Tastytrade)

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