One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations

And expectations for May…

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), Bloomberg consensus for May inflation (gray +), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink). Source: BLS, Bloobmerg (as of 5/28), University of Michigan via FRED, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional ForecastersNY Fed, and Cleveland Fed.

Michigan and NY Fed measures have ticked up in April to 3.4%. Cleveland Fed’s hybrid measure rose to 1.9% as of May.

Bloomberg consensus for May CPI inflation (year-on-year) is 3.6%, down from April’s 4.2%.

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