November 2020 Import Year-Over-Year Inflation Unchanged At -1.0%

Year-over-year import price indices inflation remained in contraction and remains at -1.0 %.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

Per the BLS:

Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after edging down 0.1 percent in October. Higher fuel prices in November more than offset lower nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices also rose in November, increasing 0.6 percent following advances of 0.2 percent in October and 0.6 percent in September.

Note that:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on November 2020 Import and Export Price Index Data The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not make changes to either the collection method or estimation methodology for the November release of U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes. Survey response rates for November were 5.6-percentage points lower than those in November 2019. A small number of indexes that are normally published were not published in November.

Import Oil prices moved from a revised -0.9 % to +4.3 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices up from +3.4 % to +3.7 %

  • the markets were expecting (from Econoday):
  Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Import Prices - M/M change +0.2 % to 0.3 % +0.3 % +0.1 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change -1.0 % to -0.8 % -0.9 % -1.0 %
Export Prices - M/M change +0.1 % to 0.3 % +0.3 % +0.6 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change -1.5 % to -1.2 % -1.5 % -1.1 %

There is only a marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions, and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

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