Nonfarm Payrolls +235,000 But No Leisure And Hospitality Jobs

NonFarm Payrolls by Sector

For August, the The BLS reports 235,000 with 243,000 private. The Econoday consensus was 740,000 and 693,000 respectively.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Details from the monthly BLS Employment Report.

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +235,000 to 147,190 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +509,000 to 153,154,000- Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -318,000 to 8,384,000- Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 to 5.2% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.6 to 9.2% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +142,000 to 261,611 ,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +190,000 to 161,537,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: -49,000 to 100,074,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: +0.0 to 61.7% - Household Survey

BLS Error Rate

Since March 2020, BLS has published an estimate of what the unemployment rate might have been had misclassified workers been included among the unemployed. Repeating this same approach, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in August 2021 would have been 0.3 percentage point higher than reported. However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.

I strongly question the accuracy of the BLS assertion that 0.3% is the high end of their error rate.

Job Revisions

  • The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 24,000, from +938,000 to +962,000
  • The change for July was revised up by 110,000, from +943,000 to +1,053,000.
  • With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 134,000 higher than previously reported.

Part-Time Jobs

The above numbers never total correctly. I list them as reported.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

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