No Doubt, There Really Will Be Two “L’s” In Payrolls

Since, however, the unemployment rate is derived from the Household Survey, it once again improved (interestingly sparking the risk rally in today’s markets) because both parts of the ratio deteriorated; only the labor force declined, therefore the number of unemployed, more than the Household Survey did.

There were, according to these numbers, fewer Americans working in November, and even fewer reporting that they are looking for work, so the unemployment rate falls anyway. Three cheers!

For one thing, the cumulative jobs deficit is materially greater than the comparisons made with February 2020. While the economy has to first work through these still-gigantic job losses, enough time has accumulated that the other deficit begins to matter nearly as much: the jobs that would’ve been gained, and are still necessary, those that only a full recovery would be able to get back.

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Disclosure: This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the author and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any ...

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