Another news-laden day as the markets rush to complete business before the Christmas-New Year hiatus.

Today I offer the first predictions for 2014 as promised, from key player China. This is a cop-out, helping me deflect a decision on what the Fed will do next. I am reminded of the old joke about the "window-wiper with a foreign accent who calls to say "the Viper is coming tonight".

The Taper is coming next month.

I attended conferences about the economies of China and Greece so far this week, and in both cases rubbed shoulders with some major investors and fund managers. About China the mood was mostly negative at NYC's Confucius Institute for Business, jointly sponsored by State University of NY and the Nanjing University of Finance & Economics. We were addressed by Finance Prof Zhicun Bian of Nanjing on the new Chinese economic reforms. [My quotes are from his translator and the translated Chinese Power Points presentation complete with US business clichés translated from the Chinese].

Apart from rah-rah cheer-leading for more "win-win" bilateral trade and investment, Prof. Bian's remarks tended toward fluffiness. For example, over the vexed and politically contentious RMB exchange rate with the US$dollar, he cited "revolution and innovation in [the] exchange rate regime to reduce the Sino-US trade surplus," with no details beyond that it was being lab-tested in Shanghai. Relaxed rules on forex in the "pilot program" might (or might not) be extended outside the Special Free Trade Zone. In the interim, RMB capital accounts will be allowed there to encourage the more but still un-free movement of funds.

There will be measures to prevent double taxation. There will be financial supervision and rules to make financial markets more efficient. He spoke of the "marketization of RMB exchange rates". No details given.

In 10 years, Prof. Bian predicted, the RMB will float freely and be convertible in capital accounts. But the interim steps remain an enigma.

China wants to cut exports and boost consumption. China needs to make it easier for small and medium sized firms to get capital. However, there were few details on how the banking system could be reformed to achieve these ends.

China needs to encourage people to spend rather than stuffing money into the mattress for a rainy day: healthcare, retirement, education, better housing, other social safety net goods not provided by the state. China, Prof. Bian said, needs to "reduce civilian savings and stimulate domestic demand." But did not talk about creating new safety nets for the Chinese to stop them over-saving.

Instead, he talked (as does Beijing) about how hidden income is creating the distortions, and claims that somehow confiscating illegal and graft money would remove income gaps. To get more people into the middle class, a reform of the income distribution and social security systems is needed. What we have been told is that there will be a more "proactive fiscal policy", whatever that will mean.

He did mention that new banks can now be established by well-qualified private capital. There are now 23 private banks which were approved by China' State Administration for Industry & Commerce, but how much funding they represent Prof. Bian could not tell us.

He said controls on how much interest rates can be charged have been loosened. He spoke of promoting equity finance. He mentioned developing and standardizing the bond market. He hinted at direct financing by private capital of the finance system.

We all know the environment is in desperate need of clean-up. Nothing was said about this beyond noting the need.

Prof. Bian made a pitch for narrowing the income gap between rich and poor, between China's regions, between urban and rural Chinese, but did not mention how "excessively high income" would be snatched in order to "lead to a fully well-off society in the foreseeable future" and greater "regional coordination."

We know that state and local government financing is distorting the economy by prioritizing or monopolizing loans to feed large local government projects and the biggest state-owned companies. But the Chinese power structure would resist any threat from such reforms now, which is why they weren't mentioned in this polite colloquium.

In my opinion, the new Communist party line for 2014 may still mean a growth target of c7%. However no such target was even mentioned in the Plenum session last week. Under post-Mao Chinese folklore, a lower growth rate is assumed to result in political unrest and challenges to the power structure, political instability Beijing won't risk. I think China is caught between the need to liberalize its economy for needed growth and the risk that its political control can elude the power elite. It is trying to get mini-reforms into place without losing power or deflecting GNP growth.

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More news follows from Mongolia, Britain, Finland, Israel, Mexico (a veritable piñata of news), South Africa, Panama, Canada, Japan and Spain.

*It's clean up time at Barrick Gold whose bonds we recently switched to. Alongside ex-chairman Peter Munk two board members and some execs are exiting. One reason may be that their interests are being more closely aligned with shareholders' as they will not be able to sell options before their leave the company or retire. We own the 8-yr Yankee bond, 06849RAF9 issued by ABX's North American Finance LLC sub.

*The latest from Bauer Performance Sports (BRRPF) is outside grandson Claude's class as a hockey player and the price bracket of his Nana. BRRPF's new state of the art hockey equipment line was designed for the top 6 players in the world who will model it starting this month. The first show is at the Chicago Hard Rock Hotel where Blackhawks Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will strut the runway in the new line. Other shows will feature elite players Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstorm of the Washington Capitals; Claude Giroux of the Philadelphia Flyers, and Henrik Lundqvist of the NY Rangers.

*Eduardo Garcia writes (in sentidocomun.co.mx with which we trade new):

FibraUno, the real estate trust, raised NMP 1.15 bn ($162.22 mn) with the sale of a 15-yr inflation-indexed corporate bond in Mexico. It pays fixed interest at 5.05% plus an undefined something for inflation. The bond was rated AAA by Fitch and HR Ratings de Mexico and was underwritten by Accival,and the Mexican subs of BBVA, Credit Suisse, and Santander. FBASF.

*Mexichem won a US International Trade Commission vote that Chinese refrigerant gas exports to the US amount to dumping because of subsidies and unfair trade practices. If confirmed by the US Dept of Commerce, countervailing duty can be imposed as early as Jan. 15, 2014. MXCHF is the only integrated refrigerant gas producer in the Americas.

*Separately, SAN and Citigroup will issue 3-yr asset-backed securities for their trade finance assets called "Trade MAPS." The first lot are for $874 mn of AAA rated 3-yr notes paying Libor +0.7%; $77.6 mn of A-rated 3-yr notes at Libor +1.12%; $31.1 mn of BBB-rated notes at Libor +2.25%; and $16.6 mn of split rated (BB/B) 3 yr notes paying Libor +5%. The notes can be sold via foreign and US SPE Trusts. This entity, 2/3 controlled by SAN, will compete with our Panamanian multi-national Americas trade finance stock, Banco Latino Americano de Comercio, BLX.

*Some of our stocks off sharply are recovering: Delek Group (DGRLY) and Compugen (CGEN) from Israel. Patti the biotech maven says the selloff in CGEN came because of healthcare profits alert setting trailing stops on pharma stocks and predicts CGEN will now adopt a mroe normal course. 

*Delek and other Israelis are busily pulling back from the high 3 bn boe (barrels of oil equivalent) estimates for two parts of the offshore Leviathan oil and gas find made at an investor conference by operator Noble Energy. (NBL confirmed with www.globesisrael.com's website). Apparently the reports made to the Israel Securities Authority (their SEC) are lower.

*Finland's Nokia is up too but brokers Sanford Bernstein said the share is "overheating" ad expects that next year NOK will have to cut NSN prices and profits to grow its business. "Avoid the name" wrote the broker.

*Also up nicely is Guangshen Railroad (again.) GSH.

*Israel Chemicals has mysteriously bought Hagesud Group, a German make or food and spice ingredients for meat processing to expand its functional food sub, ICL Performance Products. Price was not given by ISCHF.

*My challenge to our reporter on the spot (Chris Loew) by buying Fanuc (FANUY) rather than a small cap in Japan has paid off. It hit a new high today. That's because robots are hot and institutional investors cannot buy the Chris small cap stocks. This was not added to the model portfolio.

*Naspers made a new 52-wk high in London which is more significant as sterling is proving to be a strong currency, unlike the yen or the South African rand. NPSNY was tipped by a former contributor who may soon return to our fold.

*Some of the window-dressing year-end moves include sales of 50,000 shares by insiders at Mongolian Growth Group, MNGGY (YAK in Canada.) Canada loss sales must be done by Dec. 24, Martin Ferera points out.

With caveats, MNGGY's Chairman-CEO Harris Kupperman today put out its Nov. letter reporting that same store rentals rose 23% from Nov. 2012 in Mongolian togrog hitting an occupancy rate of 93.9% (98.5% for core retail and 84.7% for core office sites.) Moreover, tenants are paying up in time with collections 99% up-to-date.

The downtown Anand Building is now over 78% occupied and one tenant is adding space to bring the level to 92.2% next month, after $300,000 spend by MNGGY on renovations.

It now plans a 1000 sq meter new high street building project to be completed next year at a cost of c$1 mn.

Mongolia's mining ministry reported that the country has 60 shale oil deposits holding c700 bn tonnes which foreign investors will be invited to develop.

We worry about how the funding will come without a capital increase.

*Merck (MRK) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will work together on developing a therapy for kidney cancer combining GSK's Votrient with a programmed death checkpoint drug MK-3475. No financial details were provided.

The FDA yesterday approved the GSK bronchodilator squirt Anoro Ellipta for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but not for asthma. It will launch in US markets next month.

GSKY also got FDA priority review for its chronic lymphocytic leukemia biologic drug Azerra developed with Genmab.

GSK fell yesterday not only because of its reform of how it pays its sales force and doctors who prescribe its drugs, but also because Sandoz partnering with Vectura Group got Danish approvals to market an asthma inhaler which competes with GSK's Advair.

*Teva (TEVA) has to pay a royalty to Pfizer (PFE) for its Viagra generic to be launched in 2017, 2 years before the PFE patent expires. It wasn't clear from the initial report yesterday.

*Fund news. Our Power Deutsche Bank US$ Bull ETF UUP now has competition in the ETF dollar bull space, with the launch of the Wisdown Tree Bloombert US Dollar Bulling Fund, or USDA. Note that the newbie has a $25-25.06 spread which is excessive.