Festivities for the 25^th anniversary of “Die Wallfall”, the fall of the Berlin Wall between the old Communist East Germany and the rest of the world were rather subdued because the now free German railroad workers went on strike. Strikes were illegal in the old German “Workers' Paradise”.

All our NRI and other India fans should cheer the return of Abhimanyu Sisodia as a contributor after family crises kept him away from the 'Net. We missed his coverage of India and Asia while he dealt with a family illness and a complicated inheritance. Interestingly enough, a complex inheritance also cut off a Pakistani journalist friend from London who doesn't write for us. He also went upcountry after his grandfather died, out of contact for months.

Common traditions survive on both sides of the 1947 border, including cricket and food. The arbitrary borders of the former Raj are perhaps why the Taliban murderously attacked fellow-Pakistanis watching the ceremony near Karachi to close the barrier between the two countries as night fell. Goose-stepping soldiers in gorgeous turbans strut smartly at each other without actually landing a kick. And the similarity of their choreography and kit is strikingly obvious.

To quote another contributor, Amb. Harry Geisel: “Sometimes it's better to be lucky than smart.” More on this in today's blog where we again have results to report and news from Israel, Egypt, Spain, Switzerland, Brazil, Britain, Canada, and Mongolia.

*We'll start with Mongolia, a special sauce as we own Mongolia Growth Group, MNGGF. The country's parliament (the Grand Nural) voted “no-confidence” yesterday dismissing Prime Minister Norov Altankhuyag. It will take about a month to find a new PM and cabinet, according to observers of the fledgeling Mongolian democracy. The dispute is over a cabinet reshuffle and new fears for Mongolian growth after the World Bank forecast it would be 6.3% vs a midsummer forecast of 9.5%.

Mongolia is anxious to bring on the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine which will boost GNP, but the owner, ultimately Rio Tinto has sought concession because of mounting costs and taxes. The dispute delayed moves to get project finance for the undergound mine.

Now without a govt, everything is on hold. MNGGF aims to develop real estate to serve the global corporate influx the mine will bring in eventually: modern offices, hotels, and shopping malls, and apartments instead of yurts. But of course it is also derailed by the interregnum.

And why we are lucky? Because to the horror of many Asia hand readers I sold half our MNGGF last summer.

*We also sold half of our double-weighted Zurich Insurance. We had averaged down over the suicide last year of its CFO and pulled back to normal weighting mainly because it is very hard to predict hurricanes and other disasters. These push down insurance company profits and combined ratios (of investment returns and premiums). In Q3 it was hit by claims over Hurricane Odile in Mexico.

Yesterday ZURVY reported Q3 operating profits fell 6% to $1.21 bn, and net income down 16% to $928 mn. EPS was $6.23 vs $7.44 in Q3 '13. Net came in well below [Bloomberg] consensus of $1.04 bn, but we had a hint of this earlier (as I reported) because Credit Suisse produced lower estimates last week. To get a grip on profitability, ZURVY is cutting costs and laying off people and also getting rid of money-losing businesses, most recently its Russian general insurance arm. The good news is that the US sub, Farmer's Insurance, which the CFO who killed himself had run, was turned around with a 0.6% rise in gross premiums after declines over the past 18 months.

*We sold completely the complicated Liberty Global Media group in Britain, which is fast expanding in European markets, in favor of more sedate Vodafone. Both variants, LBTYA and LBTYK, crashed today. The reason was not the problems of Sir Richard Branson who collects a royalty for the “Virgin” trademark used by Liberty in the UK, after his space shuttle crashed last week. It is rather than the animator of Liberty, hyper-acquisitive John Malone, has made a personal deal with Cable & Wireless, a UK telco, to buy for $1.85 bn its Columbus International cable TV assets in the Caribbean and central America. Malone is going it alone because he cannot squeeze any more bank credits for Liberty, and will sell 1.6 mn more shares of Columbus and take a stake in C&W to keep on adding stuff to his structure. Again lucky not smart.

*Another stock sold,   Covidien  , turns out to have used both its Irish HQ and Luxembourg to avoid taxes according to recent Euroland revelations. COV was spun off from scandal-ridden Tyco Group sever years ago and was often too clever by half. COV is merging with Medtronics next year in a tax inversion deal rewritten as a technological pairing. It reported a good quarter with earnings up 39% but the stock price is pretty much flat because of uncertainties about the merger and new financing.

*We are not always as lucky. We sold Dr Reddy's and kept Hikma Pharma in part because of Abhimanyu being incommunicado. HKMPY is off 4.5% in London trading today. Its GDR is listed there and in Dubai. I am not sure why it fell.

*Delek Group and its partners in the Tamar Israeli offshore gasfield extended the negotiation period for a contract with Union Fenosa Gas SAS for another 6 months. The deal is to ship gas across the Sinai Desert to Damietta, in the Nile Delta, a gas-liquefaction plant shut in by the Muslim Brotherhood govt to keep Egyptian gas prices down which also upped demand. UF sued Egypt over the ruling but reportedly will withdraw if it gets Israeli gas instead. DGRLY owns 31.25% of Tamar, other Israeli interests collectively 28.75%, and operator Noble Energy of TX (NBL) 36%.

DGRLY plans an ordinary and extraordinary AGM Dec. 4 to vote on bonuses for its top brass and other matters.

Meanwhile Israeli tax authorities are tryng to collect NIS 45 mn ($12 mn) for gas royalties the Tamar partners allegedly dodged, according to Ha'aretz, a newspaper.

The lead shareholder in Delek, Yitzchak Tshuva, is of Libyan and Arabic-speaking heritage.

*Santander Bank has bought GE Capital's GE's on-line Money Bank, which has been plagued by excess fees and complaints, plus its Synchony credit card business. As a GE shareholder I am delighted but as a SAN shareholder I am not.

*Cosan reports after the market closes today in English and Portuguese. It is down nearly 5% on concerns over politics and exchange rate.

Canada Stock Calls

*Boring old BCE reported operating revenues up 1.9% in Q3 to C$ 5.195 bn and net profits of C$ 600 mn or 83 loony cents/sh while the consensus estimate was only 77 cents. Last year it earned C$343 mn or 44 cents/sh so the jump is 75%. Last year's profits were dimmed by a charge for CRTC bonds BCE had to pay to buy Astral Media. If you remove that one-off charge, EPS rose only 11%. Moreover it raised its operating margins slightly to 40.7%. Boosted sales at Bell and Bell Aliant had mixed impact on the bottom line. Old Bell phones (wireless and wireline) still pay off better than Aliant and mediar which offer TV, multiplatform, and Internet as well as smart and other phone service. Multiplatform is good for keeping customers but it is less profitable. Moreover you have to pay for ads.

BCE Capex grew 11.25% y/o/y as more households and business were lined up with Fibe TV and other services, particularly in rural areas and small towns. Bell also spent on increasing speeds for mobile Internet and data services. Now BCE 4G LTE covers 84% of Canadians and the target is to hit 98% by the end of next year as every Inuit igloo is brought on in the frozen north.

The share is down on the news but barely. US investors of course did not make the gain that Canadians did because BCE is pretty national and the loony is a loser.

*Agrium continues to hit new highs, C$112.47 this morning in the True North and $98.75 here. It fell back a tad but is still rolling. As I wrote yesterday, we opted not to sell half as recommended by bearish bunch of Bank of Nova Scotia analysts because they were so obviously on the wrong footing. And I figured out I would rather collect the raised dividend of 78 loony cents on New Year's Eve. But the main reason I decided to stick with AGU is that there is more upside to come, in my view.

The reasons are first that AGU has a unique retail business which gives it an edge against other fertilizer firms. Second it is in nitrogen and phosphates and well as potash, unlike other Canada firms. Moreover it is less seasonal than its rivals, as it sells lots of fertilizer to Australia and other southern hemisphere markets.

I am encouraged by the fact that other Canadian analysts are more bullish, even if they have not finalized their numbers, including (this is Canada) others at BNS forecasting a price in the C$120s by the end of the FY (Mar. 31). The upbeat team expect the stock to trade at 8.5x next year's cash flow and a p/e ratio of 14.5x, both of which are modestly higher than the sector overall, dominated by Potash of Saskatchewan, which is not in retail or other plant foods.

*Another Canadian analyst and petroleum engineer, Linda Ezergailis, breaks with BNS private equity gloominess but at least he is not with the same firm, Toronto Dominion over Veresen, the developer of the Jordan Cove gas liquefaction plant in Oregon and a fast-growing bunch of feeder pipelines (Ruby, Alliance) to go there in which it is contractor and investor.. TD writes:

“We believe the Jordan Cove LNG project could be transformational; we currently assigna a 60% probability that the project proceeds; and attribute C$5.50 of value for the project in our target price.” The pipelines link up to Montney/Duverney with liquids-rich gas, and the Bakken field. Our play boosted by a lady petroleum engineer!

A potential negative is if alternative exits are developed, like the Keystone XL pipeline via North Dakota to the US Gulf Coast, and the plan to build an LNG plant on Mexico's West Coast. FCGYF.

*Trefis, a research shop, notes that Johnson & Johnson is “accelerating development of a vaccine against the Zaire strain of Ebola virus responsible for the current outbreak.” JNJ it writes “announced it will begin testing a vaccine” next Jan. and may go “to 250,000 doses by May 2015 if trials go well.” It notes that JNJ is workign with Bavarian Nordic, a Danish drug discovery shop and investing $200 mn in its vaccine development plus $187 mn in milestones to BVNKF.

Trevis wonders “how this investment will pay off for Johnson & Johnson” given the rush, but says “there is a good chance the company can earn a positive return on this investment. The additive effect of its overall value will be small.”

Small for JNJ but BIG for BVNKF (or BAVYY; there are 2 ADRs but the latter is dormant.) I consider this a stock pick where I was smart, not just lucky; may the Evil Eye spare us.

Fund News

*Canadian General Investments, CGIRF, reported NAV at end Oct. was C$27.1, producing a YTD net asset value increas of 7% (in loonies, not greenbacks). It is appealing to me because it trades at such a discount from NAV, at C$20.03 at end-Oct. With reinvested dividends the share price rose 11% YTD.

Here are the top 10 holdings, not all of them Canadian:

Dollarama 5%

Canadian Pacific 4.3%

Enbridge 3.7%

Bank of Montreal 3.1%

Royal Bank of Canada 2.7%

Home Capital Group, Element Financial Corp. , and Methanex Corp. (ex acqueo) 2.6%

Startec Inc. and West Frazer Timber (ex acqueo) 2.5%.

The fund is run by the 3^rd generation of the founding Morgan Meighan family. The closed-end fund was created in 1929.

*While I withdrew the sale of AGU I have not withdrawn the sale of Dena Co, DNACF from Japan. The problem is that pricing between the bid and the ask is not getting the trade done. The market-maker is greedy. While DNACF is not a fully fledged roach motel at E-trade like the AIM Chinese shares, it is still not getting real market-making for its customers. Now E-trade has posted a warning on its global trading site reading:

“E-trade Securities may not operate in all available exchanges in Canada, France, United Kingdom, Germany, Hong Kong and Japan. The seucities listed on the following exchange are not avilable for trading locally on the respective markets through your E-trade Financial Global Trading Account, AIM Stock Exchange (UK)” and the local Frankfurt, Stuttgart, and Hamburg exchanges in Germany, and the Jasdaq in Japan.

It also now warns “currency exchanges are affected by affiliates of E-trade Securities on a principal basis and may include a mark-up. More favorable exchange rates may be available through third parties.”

Now they tell us.