Last Sat., Oct 25, marked the New Year in the Islamic calendar, according to a Moroccan source. It should be marked by a Fatwa from religious leaders that the time has come for Muslims to stop killing innocent by-standers who happen to be in target range: British or Canadian soldiers at home, cops, tiny Jewish babies and Latin guest workers waiting for the tram.

I am not sure if the 10 commandments apply to Muslims although they do treat Moses as a prophet of Allah, so I suspect that they also consider murder a sin. But it would help if someone at Al Aksa or some top mosque were to spell it out.

Some years ago, during the global financial crisis, I put a sell on Australia New Zealand Bank mainly because I feared we could not cover it well from halfway round the world. I was premature. ANZ today suspended trading because it published part of its full year profit forecasts, also prematurely. It was due to reveal the numbers on Fri. by division and region to help analysts with their forecasts for FY 2014-5 which ends Mar. 31. Of course the ADR is trading despite the ban Down Under.

From nearer home, Maxcom Telecomunicaciones of Mexico is delisting its ADRs from the NYSE because of high costs and administrative burdens, while only few shares traded. Eduardo Garcia writes in www.sentidocomun.co.mx. Adios, MXT.

Today's article focuses on Brazil, which faces difficult times under a re-elected Dilma Rousseff. Barron's today quotes Michael Shaoul (Marketfield Asset Management) as predicting that “Dilma re-elected wouldn't be the same person who destroyed the corporate sector through regulations in 2012. Her mandate has changed. We own a broad Brazilian ETF and individual shares and would buy more in a 'Dilma dump'”.

*We certainly have a Dilma dump today with Cosan off nearly 9%. CZZ.

*Vale is down over 6%.

*The rot is spreading to non-Brasileira companies like Santander, SAN, which recently boosted its stake in Santander Brazil bank. Some pundits say SAN is suffering because the market doesn't believe in the European CB stress tests.

*The problem is not just who runs the country; it is also the economic risks of mounting inflation and “a complex and inefficient tax system”, to quote Fitch Ratings. It like companies that eliminate logistics bottlenecks, which encompasses both CZZ and VALE. But Fitch forecasts that it will be downrating about 15% of Brazilian corporates next year in industries like electric power, iron ore, pulp, and sugar and ethanol. That means it may cut its ratings of Cosan and Vale after all. So hold off on buying faz favor.

*Reader BM asked what to do about “old” Portugal Telecom held in his IRA. He doesn't gain anything by selling the shares at a loss. BM should keep them and bank the dividends for his dotage. And wait for a bid.

Reuters today reported that private equity funds are circling PT after a report Fridayin The Financial Times blog FastFT:

Reportedly, “Apax Partners LLP and Bain Capital are planning to bid for Portugal Telecom from Brazilian telecommunications company Groupo Oi SA. Oi said earlier that it has been approached by several groups for purchase of Portugal Telecom, including France'sAltice, backed by billionaire Patrick Drahi.”

Altice already owns cable businesses Cabovisão and Oni in Portugal and a purchase of Portugal Telecom would help it consolidate its market position. A PT sale could raise 7 bn euros ($8.87 bn) will help Brazil's Oi to pay down its heavy debt.

Africa Notes

*Our beaten down Africa Opportunity Fund run by a Ghanian from South Africa, famously sold short Tencent (TCTZF) to create an Africa-only version of Naspers (NPSNY.) A rival group, Coronation Fund Managers, also S. African, explains that the non-domestic side of local firms that makes them attractive, including for NPSNY its expansion into other emerging markets media companies like Russia and Brazil. This enabled the stock to overcome the drag earlier this year in Jo'burg from miners' strikes and a bank failure. The weakening rand was then defended with an interest rate hike. But Naspers rose and rose.

The fund manager writes: “The prize is immense. Naspers' target markets represent more than 3.5 billion pople. Furthermore, low internet penetration and nascent advertising markets [mean] these countries offer exciting growth prospects.

“Avito in Russia highlights value from Naspers classifieds. Originally launched in 2007, after a fierce 2-yr battle, Naspers and Avito agreed to merge their Russian classifieds business in Mar. 2013. Naspers emerged with a 21.5% stake. The scale of Avito is impressive. It is the clear leader in a number of markets, generates more than 100 mn page views/day, and the [estimated] value of goods sold on its platform is equal to roughly 5% of Russia's GDP.

In its first year post-merger, “it is on track to generate more than $100 mn in revenues and growing by more than 100% at an EBITDA margin of greater than 50%. Its market value is close to $2.2 bn, a return of almost 500% for Naspers since its initial investment in Russian classifieds just 3 years ago.”

“We believe Naspers' leading online classifieds site in India could attract a valuation much higher than the current $2.2 bn for Avito should they establish a dominant market position.

“Naspers continues to be underappreicated by the market. An investor buying Naspers today is still only paying for its stake in Tencent and paying almost zero for its interests in pay-TV, print, and Internet including an extremely valuable classifieds portfolio. Alternatively, you are buying Tencent at a very large discount.”

Revolutionary Finds

*Compugen reported that it has validated a 6^th B7/CD28-like cancer immunotherapy target CGEN-15027. The Israeli drug discovery shop now has 6 checkpoint cancer treatment candidates which inhibit cancer immune cells and can become targets for monoclonal antibody therapy. It proved active in inhibiting melanoma human CD8 cytotoxic T-cells. CGEN finds immune checkpoints using its predictive computer database pipeline. A checkpoint inhibits receptors and their ligands, which is crucial to prevent auto-immunity which protects tissues from damage when the immune system responds to pathogenic infection or other harm. But these immune checkpoints are then 'hijacked' by tumors which can block their ability to destroy the tumors. Another 5 11 tumor infiltrating immune cell checkpoints were studied in how they affected cells from lung, breast, and liver cancer patients. These checkpoints are game changers as cancer immunotherapy candidates.

*Computer Modelling Group of the True North (Canada) in Amsterdam today revealed its latest integrated reservoir and production system modeling application to the Society of Petroleum Engineers annual conference. Developed with Petrobras and Shell, CoFlow is described as “revolutionary” as it will speed up implementation of offshore oilfields, cutting costs. It combines reservoir modeling, production, and geo-mechanical engineering workflows into one integrated framework. While Canadian analysts periodically decide that CMG has an excessive p/e ratio, your editor pays no attention, While CoFlow will go first to the companies which helped develop it, next year, future versions will also be sold to other offshore drillers by CMG. More Canada news below.

Comments Harry Geisel: “'Revolutionary' is a serious adjective when used by a serious company.”

*In addition to its plan to reverse the trans-Sinai pipeline to Egypt for Israeli offshore gas, the Leviathan partners including Delek Group (via 2 subs) is also about to sign a $15 bn memorandum of understanding to supply gas to Jordan. It would save Jordan $1.4 bn/yr for energy imports from its current suppliers according to energy minister Mohammed Hamed (quoted by Reuters). Jordan's power company is losing money to meet mounting demand from population growth and industrialization and has incurred over $6.5 bn in debt since the Egyptian supply route was cut, and it had to buy diesel and heavy fuel.

Hamed said the terms and prices have not yet been set but it appears that a pipeline will run across Israel to supply Jordan. The talks are being run by Noble Energy of the US, the operator of the Leviathan consortium.

Delek also managed to complete its sale of 34% of US P&C insurance firm Republic Group. Other Israeli insurance spinoffs have run into trouble from the Israeli regulator, notably an insurance sub of Israel Discount Bank now controlled by Argentina's Eduardo Elsztein (of Cresud.) Ms Salinger appears to prefer the dodgy Argie to a Chinese bidder. Spinning off is hard to do.

Spinning Off Is Hard To Do

*Vodafone has begun auditing Spanish cable firm Grupo Corporativo ONO for tax fraud. It acquired the firm in July and now is doing a forensic audit to make sure that its euros 7.2 bn purchase (plus debt acquisition) was kosher.

*Reckitt Benckiser will detail its pharma spinoff plans in Nov. There will be a separate London stock listing and we will get shares but there will be no capital raised. RBGLY will probably not forget to include ADR owners in the spinoff of what is considered a non-core asset. Because the new entity will probably not be in the FTSE 100 like its parent, its shares will be sold off and if cheap enough it might attract a takeover bid. RBGLY had a bad quarter but other consumer firms were worse. The risks are euroland collapse, developing world suffering from low commodity prices (and high nostrum and household goods prices), and the latest round of British supermarket price wars, but among consumer non-durables R-B lines are more durable needs than some others.

*Novartis is selling its flu vaccine business to Australia's CSL raising about US$275 mn as part of its divestiture of “non-core” asssets. NVS is getting only about a quarter of book value for the flu business which will lead to an impairment charge, but despite this, NVS is up today. It is also selling other vaccine businesses to GlaxoSmithKlineunder its re-organization but these deals have not closed yet.

*Galapagos NV of Belgium is working with Calchan Ltd (Cambridge England) to develop f new medicine for osteoarthritis pain based on calcium ion channel modulators GLPGF found. Britain's Biometical Catalyst Round awarded GBP 2.4 mn to the 2 firms for identifying pre-clinical drug candidates for this unmet need.

*GSK plans management reforms to become more shareholder-friendly. Details to follow when they tell us more. Glaxo was upgraded to overweight by Barclays with a GBP 16 target price ($26 at present exchange rates.)

*Nokia was upgraded to buy by Canaccord Genuity with a target price of $13/sh, which means there is another ~60% to go. We told you first.

Canada Plays

*Agrium continues to rise in the wake of ValueAct Capital Management's buy of a 5.7% stake. AGU was the target of shareholder activists before and VACM has been involved in actions over Microsoft, Valeant Pharma, Motorola, Adobe Systems, and Sara Lee. The prior activists tried to make the Canadian fertilizer firm sell its retail arm, one of the reasons I like AGU. But if you believe them, ValueAct supports management and expects crop prices to boost fertilizer use by 2016.

*KKR insiders have unloaded about 2 mn shares of Performance Sports Group but still have about 5% of the stock. PSG is the NYSE-listed successor to Bauer Performance Sports of Canada.

*Being an atomic energy fan I am upset that the long-term solution to global warming is being short-changed by the declining price of crude oil. Different energy sources are not fungible. You cannot fire up a nuclear reactor with oil; you need urainum. So the drop ofCameco by 20%. makes no sense. Uranium demand will rise as more plants are recommissioned (in Japan) or built (in China). And existing nuclear plants are not going to be shut in so that other plants burning oil can fill the gap (and poison the air.) This is a buying opportunity for CCJ investors.

*Numis Securities, a British brokerage, thinks the UK High Court challenge by on-line gambling companies to a “consumption tax” may succeed. The shares, it argues, are over sold, and can rise sharply if the British Supremes back the bookies. With its cash and a p/e ratio of 7, one gainer could be Irish Paddy Power plc, PDYPF, now marginally below our initial acquisition price.

*Another anonymous guru wrote yesterday on www.seekingalpha.com without doing his homework. This guy rattled on about Schlumberger's ambitions in China without even mentioning its near-30% stake in Hong Kong listed Anton Oilservices. The article was by “All Bases Covered” who surely failed to cover all bases. ATONY, SLB.

*E-Trade has finally arranged to send me the basis and the huge loss incurred on the sale of Camkids, CAMK:UK last summer. It is required to provide this info the the IRS and I am not going to pay my accountant to do the work. I am supposedly a top-tier platinum client. Since the CAMK sale two other Chinese stocks listed in London have become untrackable and untradeable with E-trade and they have been removed from the model portfolios. However I still own them and will comment from time to time.