Blizzard And Bangkok
Today I played hookey. I was supposed to attend a Global Research 2014 forecasting breakfast with the Thundering Herd, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, near the NY Public Library. But we are having a proper blizzard.
The Economist’s The World in 2014 issue helps focus my attention on questions Good Judgment Project (GJP) forecasters work on daily: what geopolitical outcomes can we expect over the next year?
Its article by GJP’s Phil Tetlock and Economist journalist Dan Gardner asks “who’s good at forecasts?” One way “to sort the best from the rest” they suggest is simply polling lots of intelligent people using a forecasting tournament. You can sign up at www.goodjudgmentproject.com to check your forecasting ability. I signed up but they got too many responses from the Economist to take me on.
Participants can improve their forecasting skills through training and practice, with frequent feedback on their accuracy. Combining training and practice with what GJP’s research suggests is a stable trait of forecasting skill seems to produce the phenomenon that GJP calls 'superforecasters'.
GJP’s top forecasters are so accurate that, according to a recent report by Washington Post columnist and Canadian politician David Ignatius, they even outperformed the forecasts of intelligence analysts with access to classified information.
My first cousin M is back on the streets on Bangkok in her yellow shirt despite the Yingluck Shinawatra government's decision to call an election two years early. What is she after? M is not a typical middle-class Thai, being from the northeast where the Shinawatra power based among poor farmers is strongest. She is a businesswoman married to a round-eye. Most of her fellow yellows are more educated and wealthier than she is. But M loves protesting and joins in heartily.
Some astonishing photos of the protesters arrived, clustered in little family groups having picnics. It looked more peaceable than what's in the press, 'rioters' putting garlands of flowers round policemen's necks and throwing flowers at the tanks.
Trouble seems to be ratcheting up a bit though after the King's birthday and the Yingluck concession. Yellow shirts now scent victory and may go too far given that the Shinawatras still appear to have a majority if there is a clean democratic election.
What M et al are after now is probably a military coup in my opinion (not hers.)
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