A Foodie Note And An Industrial Stock

While I am not sure what an industrial stock might be, Barron's today quotes William Blair analyst Nick Heymann as favoring this sector. Only one of his selections is outside the USA and a smallish cap. He tips BBD/B in Canada at C$3.80/sh. Curiously enough, this is a stock I was recently credited with recommending the same stock inInvestor's Digest of Canada, the Canadian Barron's. Naturally I am particularly proud of being treated as an expert on Canadian shares by this magazine published in Toronto. The article quoting me came out on August 1 while the Barron's one appeared August 11.

Today I got extremely positive news for my Kinder Morgan Partners stock, a purely USA holding which soared 17.87% so far today on news that the Kinder Morgan group will abandon the Master Limited Partnership structure and merge it into its parent. The Kinder Morgan outfit was not mentioned by the Barron's MLP panelists whose ideas were also published today.

At least one piece of good news from India as it moves toward privatization and liberalization is notable. It is not the ipo of Steel Authority of India Ltd, but the launch of Indian real estate investment trusts, of which more below for paid subscribers.

More on this good news and other developments follows from our stocks, along with more details on the Toronto share for paid subscribers and other news from India, Ireland, Israel, Britain, Canada, Brazil, Australia, Portugal, and Singapore, plus a company quarterly of exceptional juiciness and a recommendation for foodies.

*Ituran, the Israeli location software company, broke records almost across the board in its Q2. ITRN reports in dollars and we got into it because some of its systems were used to create the prototype Iron Dome which protects Israel against missiles lobbed from Gaza, the casus belli of the latest attack on it. While Israeli military action would be considered more “proportionate” if it did not have the means to protect its civilian population from Gaza missiles, I am happy that they have the Iron Dome—now being sold to South Korea which also has civilians very close to a border with an irreconcilable adversary. (Thanks to Asia-hand reader BM for sending me the Korean news.)

These days, Iron Dome having been Pentagon-ized, Ituran mostly sticks to its main business of location based software, sold worldwide to car-hire companies and trucker firms needing to keep track of their vehicles. And what a business it is! ITRN produced record revenues in Q2 of $46.6 mn, up 8% year/year. Its operating profits also his a record, of $12.1 mn. Its gross margins hit another record of $24.8 mn and its leapt to 53.3% from 50.9% a year earlier. Its operating margins came to a record 25.9% vs prior year's 23.5%. And its EPS rolled in at 35 cents/sh vs prior year's 32 cents.

Ituran declared a 19 cent dividend per share, based on its higher metrics and better cash flow and cash position. The divvie will be paid Oct. 7, right after Yom Kippur.

*A DC reader wrongly interpreted the drop last week in the price of Ascendas India Trust as a sign that the Singapore-based REIT investing in India is a possible “roach motel”. It dropped 25% in the opening trade Friday last week to 50 cents after it closed at the equivalent of 63 cents in Singapore.

I suspect the ACNDF action was the result of India's leaky regulatory system and its gossip-mad exchanges reacting to news that the country would allow real estate investment trusts to be offered inside India. Some 5 bn rupees will be invested in the new REITs, according to Bloomberg.

ACNDF while part of a Singaporean fund management group is a favorite investment by “NRIs”, non-resident Indians, who want to play the country's growth without have to entrust their funds to the wild gyrations of the 8-armed guardian of Indian markets. Moreover they may not want to invest for a minimum of 200,000 rupees ($555) to get into the still non-existent future Indian REITs to protect small investors. So someone worked out that ACNDF might lose its monopoly to other India-based construction firms. But back in Bombay, locals are not considered as trustworthy as Singaporean Chinese. Ascendas, founded 30 years ago in Singapore, operates in corporate business and hotel leasing and real estate management all over Asia and Australia. ACNDS has a US$607 mn market cap. In public REITs and private funds the parent group group has AUM of over S$15 bn. No roach motel.

*Today a similar sell-off of all of 500 shares took down Origin Energy, OGFGF, which fell 4.11% to $12.61, 5% over our entry point. Again we need to look at volume before panicking. I am trying to buy more of the Oz ute which yields 3.6%. It is part of the most advanced project for liquefaction for Chinese demand.

*In London I wrote about $3.1 bn in conditional orders booked by Bombardier, whose US pink sheet ticker symbol is BDRAF, despite its not being able to display its C-Series jets at the British Farnborough International Air Show. I wrote that you “would have looked around—or up—in vain for a sighting of Bombardier's new aircraft.” Its maiden flight has been delayed again, until next year. “But the no-show did not clip the wings of the CS sales agreements.” I then wrote about the new letters of intent for sales to China's Zhejiang Loong Airline and Jordan's Petra Airline for a total of 28 planes. I also noted that Falko Regional (a leasing firm) was buying up to 24 CS100s with “conditions”. I worked out that BDRAF now was holding 203 firm orders and another 292 conditional contracts for the new single-aisle regional jet, carrying 110 to 160 passengers depending on configuration. It needs 300 firm orders to make money when the plane starts to fly in H2 2015.

Mr Heymann rightly points out that the new plane offers shorter takeoff, more range, less noise, lower emissions, lighter weight, and greater fuel economy. He also thinks the stock could triple or quadruple over the next 3-5 years.

He failed to mention that Bombardier is not betting the farm on the C-Series since it also has another business producing railway and tram carriages. I think they are also industrial products.

While it is not likely to go up like KPM today, the Barron's piece may lift off our Bombardier.

*A double-taxation treaty made between Switzerland and Brazil may allow Brazilian multinational companies to avoid having to pay Brasilia after already paying taxes to Berne. The chief victim of the current tax excess has been Vale whose considerable profits continue to be nibble more by back tax claims it is paying off than by the impact of lower iron ore prices. Unlike some other Brazilian giant firms, Vale is dealing in trackable goods sold from real mines. And it lacks the political clout of some other big-spender Brazilian firms which use dodgy foreign sales to produce corrupt political contributions and fraud at home.

In 2012 Vale was hit by the Swiss with a huge tax bill of 212 mn Swissies for misusing certain tax exemptions taken by its Saint-Prex Europe HQ for benefits received in return for creating jobs and investing a certain sum in facilities and in Swiss universities. But then the Brazilians came up with another tax demand, part of which is still open, but which comes to another $15 bn or so which it appealed to the Swiss Supremes. This was for how it valued the iron ore and nickel it sold, for which it was forced to use market prices rather than its actual cost of production, a quirky Brazilian trick to boost taxes. VALE is paying up and at the final 2013 quarter paid out about $6 bn to Brazil for back taxes, which wiped out profits.

VALE has a Swiss operating company, a condition for being treated as having paid Swiss taxes for a good reason. The impact of the new law, depending on how it is interpreted, can mean a billion dollar loss to Brazil from hitting its companies with another round of taxes, and Vale is likely to be an early gainer from having to pay taxes only once on the same sale.

*Portugal Telecom continues to fall (-3.5% today) again for no reason. So I bought some more at $1.96 after earlier saying I wouldn't. This is the result of a Portuguese panic among tyro investors and maybe copycat funds all trying to exit at once. My 2 Portuguese sources say it just doesn't compute, even though PT is the sole way to short the defunct Banco Espirito Santo, and even though it will take longer to buy a marginally smaller share of Brazil's Oi. Oi, formerly Telemar, is the largest landline operator in Brazil and the 2nd largest in Latin America. It is also no. 2 in cellular, to Vivo, which PT sold to Telefonica a couple of years ago.

Meanwhile the Brazilian telecom business is being targeted by Telecom Italia, and Telefonica, both of which want to buy into GVT which Vivendi (of France) wants to sell; both have other telephone interests which might lead to problems with the competition regulators, however. Meanwhile PT crashes.

*GlaxoSmithKline has a vaccine against the deadly Ebola virus which is about to move into US FDA phase I trials after producing good results in animal tests. (The vector for Ebola is bats which are not exactly cuddly critturs.) The virus may be tested starting as soon as next month according to the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the NIAID. It would not be available until to 2015—if it works—which is pretty fast. The British firm acquired the Ebola jab through its $325 mn buyout in 2013 of Okairos, spun off by Merck. It develops genetic vaccines using adnovirus vectors to get T-cells to attack disease, rather than relying on an antibody response which is the old way to make vaccines.

Today Dick Davis Digest ran an article urging purchase of GSK by John Dessauer despite a disappointing Q2 and concerns about corruption, not mentioning Ebola. He noted that the sterling-denominated dividend was raised by 6% and argues that investors will gain if the pound continues to rise; I tend to disagree because GSK is a global player whose income ultimately depends on the US$.

*Alkermes is under a cloud because of concern about the attack on tax inversion deals, and because of its lousy Q2 numbers, already published. But I thin its central nervous system drug franchise makes it a takeover target not for tax evasion, but for pipeline boosting, perhaps even for Teva which also is into CNS drug search. ALKS, TEVA.

*Standard & Poor's worries that regulatory changes in Canada will lower future Ottawa support of Canadian banks and says the outlook is negative for the big 6, which includes our Bank of Nova Scotia. BNS.

*What I would really like to do is go to a Moscow magazin and buy imported groceries, frozen turkeys, and produce and keep them for until the Russian import ban empties the shelves. Then I would sell them very dearly to Putinist Russians bored by their native cuisine, making a huge profit. Russians will not happily go back to their Soviet-era diet. Price-controls on Russia's markets and stores are unlikely to work.

Instead I am stocking up on Russian groceries at the Washington Heights neighborhood where I grew up. I want to fill my larder before Russian prices rise for good bread, kvass, and herrings across the ocean. Moscow on Hudson is at 801 West 181st St. about 4-5 blocks from where my parents lived in Upper Manhattan.

Fund news follows:

*John Cole Scott writes in Closed-end Fund Advisors of Richmond VA that Morgan Stanley Emerging Debt Fund (MSD) saw a 37% drop in insider holdings of its shares, to 9.88% of the shares out. MSD is worth looking into and I fear there is a troubled stake in its pile. It yields 8.84%. The relatively non-diversified and non-leveraged fund holds government and private sector debt in Turkey, Indonesia, Russia, Phillipines, China, Venezuela, Mexico, and Poland which all look sound but account for only 36% of the portfolio, including as well a 4.425% stake in its parent's Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund. It is at a 13% discount from NAV.

*Aberdeen Global Income Fund, FCO, this month will pay a flat 7 cents/sh dividend of which 76% will come from investment income and 24% from return of capital (which is not taxable).

*Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, FAX, this month will pay a flat 3.5 cents dividend sourced 62% from net investment income and 38% from return of capital.

*Vanguard Group has taken a 4.93% stake in Covidien according to the Irish stock market authorities. We sold our COV.

Disclosure: None

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