New Short-Term Downtrend
The Short-Term Trend
We probably have a new short-term downtrend, although it is still unconfirmed. Not all of the critical indicators have started to point lower.
The SPX is under its five-day average, but just barely.
The Summation Index has rolled over and is now pointing lower, although it still looks a bit tentative.
I mentioned that not all of the indicators are pointing lower. Here is an example: the ten-day Call/Put is still pointing higher, although it has been moving sideways for a couple of weeks.
Outlook Summary
- The economy is in recession as of March 28.
- The short-term trend is lower as of May 15.
- Contrarian Sentiment favors lower prices as of May 2.
- The medium-term trend for Treasury bonds is up as of January 25 (prices higher, yields lower).
Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment adviser. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...
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