Midweek Focus On The Medium-Term

The short-term uptrend is now is doubt after today's selling, and because the SPX is just under important resistance. So now we watch for further signs of technical deterioration leading to a new short-term downtrend.

These bullish percents often provide nice signals regarding the short-term trend. If they were to drop under their 5-day averages, I probably decide that there is a new downtrend. 

But keep in mind that there are false signals occasionally such as late May when the NYSE bullish percent dropped, but then quickly turned higher again.

I don't have much time for the market today, but I do see that semiconductors have broken back below the 50-day after closing the gap yesterday. I believe that the general market is destined to follow the semiconductors up or down.

The Financials are in a solid downtrend with price under the 50-day, and the 50-day under the 200-day. The only thing missing is a downturn in the direction of the 200-day.

Ditto for the Industrials.

Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is cautious
The medium-term trend is up as of May-10. 
The short-term trend is up as of Jul-06. 

The medium-term trend for bond prices is up as of Jun-19 (yields lower, prices higher).

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

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