Midweek Focus On The Medium-Term
The short-term uptrend is now is doubt after today's selling, and because the SPX is just under important resistance. So now we watch for further signs of technical deterioration leading to a new short-term downtrend.
These bullish percents often provide nice signals regarding the short-term trend. If they were to drop under their 5-day averages, I probably decide that there is a new downtrend.
But keep in mind that there are false signals occasionally such as late May when the NYSE bullish percent dropped, but then quickly turned higher again.
I don't have much time for the market today, but I do see that semiconductors have broken back below the 50-day after closing the gap yesterday. I believe that the general market is destined to follow the semiconductors up or down.
The Financials are in a solid downtrend with price under the 50-day, and the 50-day under the 200-day. The only thing missing is a downturn in the direction of the 200-day.
Ditto for the Industrials.
Outlook Summary:
The long-term outlook is cautious.
The medium-term trend is up as of May-10.
The short-term trend is up as of Jul-06.
The medium-term trend for bond prices is up as of Jun-19 (yields lower, prices higher).
Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...
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