The September Preliminary came in at 92.0, up 2.2 from the August Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 90.9.

Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments:

Consumer sentiment posted a small rebound from the sharp August decline, marking the third lowest level since Trump's election. While the uptick was across both current and expected economic conditions, the early September rebound was not widespread across age or income subgroups as it only fell among consumers under age 45 and among households with incomes in the top third---these two groups account for about half of all spending. The data do indicate that consumers anticipate that the Fed will cut interest rates next week, with net declines in interest rates more frequently expected at present than anytime since the depths of the Great Recession in February 2009 (see the chart). These expectations are likely to diminish the impact on spending from a quarter-point rate cut, but if rates remain unchanged, it may increase negative reactions by consumers. Concerns about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy also rose in early September, with 38% of all consumers making spontaneous references to the negative impact of tariffs, the highest percentage since March 2018. Those who negatively mentioned tariffs also held more negative views on the overall outlook for the economy as well as anticipated higher inflation and unemployment in the year ahead. While a recession is not anticipated in the year ahead, neither is a resurgence in personal consumption. The outlook for consumption is for a slower but positive growth, keeping the expansion going for another year. [More...]

See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

(Click on image to enlarge)

To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 6.7 percent above the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 7.9 percent above the geometric mean. The current index level is at the 61st percentile of the 501 monthly data points in this series.

Note that this indicator is somewhat volatile, with a 3.0 point absolute average monthly change. The latest data point saw a 2.2 point increase from the previous month. For a visual sense of the volatility, here is a chart with the monthly data and a three-month moving average.

(Click on image to enlarge)

For the sake of comparison, here is a chart of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (monthly update here). The Conference Board Index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan Index.

(Click on image to enlarge)

And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB Business Optimism Index (monthly update here).

(Click on image to enlarge)

The general trend in the Michigan Sentiment Index since the Financial Crisis lows was one of slow improvement. The survey findings have neared the pre-recession peak.