EC Market Looks Like The Scene From Macbeth

“Davidson” submits:

It may seem like the current market/investment cycle is different time. It is not. Every cycle has unique and unexpected aspects which leave investors feeling they are in the witches’ caldron in this scene from Macbeth. The fact remains that the current mix of events is as disconcerting as experienced in previous markets. Investment themes today are no less and no more confusing than they have ever been. The trick to navigating markets is to keep it simple and focus on ‘Big Picture’ and build a portfolio comprising skilled management teams.

Song of the Witches: “Double, double toil and trouble

By William Shakespeare (from Macbeth)

”Double, double toil and trouble;

Fire burn and caldron bubble.

Fillet of a fenny snake,

In the caldron boil and bake;

Eye of newt and toe of frog,

Wool of bat and tongue of dog,

Adder’s fork and blind-worm’s sting,

Lizard’s leg and howlet’s wing,

For a charm of powerful trouble,

Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.

Double, double toil and trouble;

Fire burn and caldron bubble.

Cool it with a baboon’s blood,

Then the charm is firm and good.”

Investing is a matter of knowing how much detail one can know, how much detail is truly useful and selecting that information which proves more reliable over time. Investing is a process of out-guessing other investor’s perceptions. Investing is an art with some logic thrown in. Market prices are established by investor psychology responding to evolving information which investors translate to anticipated changes in business valuations. The logic portion of investing is a focus on the indicators of economic drivers responsible for evolving information before investors have responded. The art portion involves judgment based on experience to guess the changes of direction in investor psychology to one’s advantage. Investing is a ‘mind-game’ involving a complex mix of shifting inputs many of which are unexpected. The marketplace is a literal minefield.

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Disclosure: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or ...

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