E Market Briefing For Tuesday, March 17

Black Swans collided - nearly two months ago, before the whole flock lost its way, as many money managers (not the Fed) thought they could somehow buy dips or minimize the reality of a modern global pandemic, and now seem to be sobering all at once over the last couple of weeks.

Part of that doesn't just relate to the President saying the Covid-19 peak could be as late as July or August, although that sure took the wind out of any sails that were hoping for low-level stability, which sort of preceded. It was only when Dr. Fauci 'clarified' that means we might be past the hump essentially before then (and reassess 15 days from now, incidentally), it was calming. But the damage was done and the decline accelerated.  

I'm glad the President clarified that we might be 'through this' by then and not that the peak wouldn't come until later Summer. I personally thought 'peak' would be late April / early May, and I still speculate that way as I've heard Fauci ruminate that as well. It depends how well these draconian, almost-lockdown, efforts go in the United States.  

Technically I have projected and totally believed that the preceding 2018 lows (and more) come out as this 'WuFlu-based 2020crash' evolves (it's so complex that maybe we should have a contest to name the seminal or historic event overall. It's not just WuFlu and it's not just excessive debt in an already-absurdly priced-to-perfection market, and it's not what in 2007 I labeled a coming 'Epic Debacle', but it has elements of all of that.  

Which reminds me that while there were various 'bubbles' (debt the most evident for a long time, and now it goes from incredible to insane) and it's not a CMO or CDO 2007-'08 derivatives crisis we projected, it is financial too, and the leveraged funds in many cases have loans and credit lines that will be compromised, called, or result in compelled liquidations.  

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