E Market Briefing For Thursday, March 19

If January was 'The Inger Top'; will this be 'The Inger Bottom' ? Despite our projected series of S&P technical breaks, and frantic swings, there are several highlights I want to communicate today, including the first time since turning bearish in January. These are my attitude shifts this year, thus far:

1) This market reversed after Ackman's 'peak-fear-cheering' (a little noticed tidbit about hitting cash-machines got my attention, as not a thing any big money manager would do; hence motive suspicion)

2)  In addition, a bit more exposure to the depressing warning from Imperial College that I shared yesterday, of 18 months quarantine (nope that is not in the cards, not even remotely, given treatment on the way), although discussion of 'ring-fencing' London (heavily hit) spreads great fear as well as the virus, while people evacuate, as happened in Wuhan, and even earlier this week in New York City. If I'm saying the worst is behind (for many but not all sectors), consider I am doing the opposite of 'fear-cheering'.

3) This is not to say there's not potential downside to go, but like if so, it's after a potentially significant rebound' perhaps starting within hours, and failure of VIX (VIX) to emulate the S&P (SPY) action hints at that.

4) Yesterday's emergency ECB meeting announced a 750 billion Euro bond-buying program, which is helping the Futures for now, while there is no doubt Europe is suffering as the virus continues to take its toll.

5) Most important: I suspect a Presidential announcement along the lines of a trial 'therapeutic treatment' or 'drug cocktail', that will not prevent or cure the coronavirus in all instances, but will relieve lung infection or inflammation sufficiently to forestall or ideally recover a criticality situation, resulting in much more than palliative care and thus fewer patients moving from flu-like to respirator status, and if so the GM offer to build more respirators won't be necessary. Any such 'cocktail' (not Gin & Tonic) should ideally diminish this forthcoming crush on ICU's and thus take the 'edge off' the panic that washout sessions like Wednesday's, and genuinely justified fears for sure generated, whether in markets or overall society.

6) I suspect the President remarking that he has 'not' invoked the Defense Procurement law that he signed today, might be because he is hopeful (nobody knows for sure yet) that what he announces tomorrow will speed relief (I really don't care if he claims credit or not; you know) .. relief to both the fear of the virus and fear itself.

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