Market Briefing For Thursday, Jan. 7

 

We're not going to be pleased if a day like this causes 'even more' restrictions on our daily lives and freedoms, and suspect some will try to do that after this, while we nevertheless continue to bemoan the triggering influence today.

At the same time there ought to be an understanding, that throughout the global pandemic, citizen anxieties expressed themselves fairly publicly, and even violently, regardless of perceived righteousness of their grievances. It falls upon authority figures and politicians to recognize agita: not excuse it, but manage it. Or in this case not inflame it. Time for people to take a step back. Whether doing so includes invoking the 25th Amendment may be next.

Calling for calm 'after' the event doesn't work, especially for those who incited it in the first place, and especially if doing so while reiterating a 'cause celeb'. Nevertheless we understand people's frustrations. So before digging a bit into this insane day (where the stock market was strong), I am sure everyone will pile-onto Donald Trump (with much justification), while neglecting to embrace or understand the underlying mood of many average people, of vets, or those whose lives were marginalized in the pandemic.

Sure, Trump manipulated crowds and is a sore loser (whether he would have lost in different voting regimens isn't the point, it's settled by Court already). I simply am trying to give a nod to the struggles of our citizens, while not at all excusing Trump's 'theater of the absurd', with awareness that something was indeed coming, as has been ruminating for a couple of weeks. 

The stunning vulnerability of the Capitol was bared totally, and while we'll not explore any of it in this report, the entire affair was pathetic, and historic, while not exactly unexpected. For days 'core' Trump supporters had pledged efforts to stop the 'normally procedural' certification-count of the Electoral vote in the joint session of Congress, and there were security meetings about this. Even last night I mentioned the Iranian threat and probable 'air-cover' being readied as well as alerts to Air Traffic Control and so on. Where was the preparation?

We've had protests (Vietnam era), riots, even bombing once by Puerto Rican separatists long ago. But never something like this, so predictable given sheer incitement a couple hours earlier, with what nevertheless was an obvious lack of preparedness for such a confrontation. It's pathetic, and it's shameful.

The breach of the American Capitol, for the first time since the War of 1812, when the British attacked and burned it, should offend every patriotic American, as opposed to those 'thinking' they're being patriotic (some not smart enough to know otherwise). We'll call most of them knuckleheads, to be relatively kind. For sure there are genuine Republican patriots who feel the Election wasn't totally proper, but they too agreed the time to end the rancor was before today. And yes, many red-blooded Americans lean toward Trump, but not this lunacy and they dismiss assaults against his character, because they don't know him.

Once the Supreme Court upheld the lower courts, that was the point to cease and desist the disruptions. That was the point for Trump to concede and face a reality, but instead he did what Bill Maher warned of: hunkering down, riling people up, and perhaps immovable, yet to be dragged from the Oval Office (probably to his nearest golf course ..ha). After this day, his plans may shift.

Finally delivering mixed messages telling supporters to 'go home', Mr. Trump (who some think should be asked not to 'step-up' by Biden, but to 'step-down') expressed 'harmony' with the mob (once they breached the Capitol they were no longer protestors but rioters) engaged in open sedition. It's just stupidity as well as a lack of knowledge of civics, and how little often-well-meaning people know about Constitutional procedures. Which meant reluctantly accepting the Election results, whether liked or not, once the courts sorted that out.

And it was not limited to the Capitol, as the 'intent' of all this is broader. Given 3 IED's found, and concurrent demonstrations in Colorado, Wisconsin, even in Las Vegas, well clearly there's an organizational structure involved. As this was an insurrection, you not only find those people, but the FBI actively needs to arrest ringleaders.

Executive summary:

  • Let me say that 'all' of these recent events would be different if not for a long-lasting 'pandemic', which forms a backdrop that impacted everything including 'voting procedure' changes in states, or a Missouri Senator with ambition promoting upheaval and disdain of the Supreme Court (in which Trump picks notably honored their Constitutional responsibility).
  • Hence if more states had proper mail-in voting (like Florida does now), as I've noted before, the basis for voting irregularity claims wouldn't exist and you'd likely have had a properly-contested vote and transition.
  • People are frustrated, often struggling, typically fatigued by COVID, and in a mood where (through no help from social media) having no 'closure' as regards the 2020 Election, and all of that undermines 'confidence'.
  • Hence you saw Trump's greatest 'reality show' today, 'trumping' earlier super-spreader rallies and so on, and one can hope there's no sequel.
  • Market strength, buoyed by Oil, was surprisingly strong after Senate loss based on the Georgia vote, clearly moving stocks to realize the increased spending will become a focus, evidenced by rising infrastructure stocks.
  • This occurred before the Trump-inspired (as some term it) insurrection, and the market did very well to retain most of the gains through the day.
  • President Trump is accused of 'lighting the flame of this day' and we don't see a reason to dispute that, so as noted, ramifications may ensue.
  • How history records this is an ongoing process or situation, which fits the nature of what we have accused foreign interlopers of trying to provoke, so contemplate the implications as many have about 'motivations',
  • Does the 'Disruptor in Chief' (whose disruptions were helpful to normalize economics over 2-3 years ago) go away, go forward, switch to supporting a 'transfer of power' (no longer peaceful after he was willing to throw all under the bus), or oddly enough resign and try to evade prosecution.
  • Seriously prosecution (from the Southern District of New York if not other agencies) might be a reason to 'feign' COVID-after-effects, impaired mental agility, or other 'plausible explanations' for increasingly bizarre behavior.
  • Because if Pence became a brief President, he could 'pardon' Trump, do remember that this President (on top of everything) broke the law with his telephone call to Georgia's Sec'y. of State last week, and more or less his threats to Vice President Pence.
  • Enough, this is all insanity, and I thought 2020 ended (hah), even security issues were ridiculous, especially since there was at least an hour for DC Police to notify Capitol Police of what Trump said to his supporters, so we have more than enough to go-around for the coming 'blame game'.
  • So the Army (National Guard) is deployed, the President can't 'tweet' for now, but he still has the authorities over the nuclear codes, however his National Security Advisor and Deputy, are rumored considering resigning.
  • Even if you do favor Trump, perhaps consider it's time to retire him, oh on medical/mental grounds if nothing else, just to be calm for two weeks, of course realizing the Trump followers may create more diversions.
  • At the same time realizing Mitch McConnell spoke about democracy and stabilizing our society, and that was this morning before the storming.
  • Political violence often begets more political violence, so note that reality, with a wish that we simply move into a more united era as Biden pledges, but it becomes trickier given divisive politics that have preceded this.
  • So is this what happens in the era of fake news, agenda politics, and an unmonitored (until recently) social media environment that for a long time wasn't exactly censored, but allowed groups to plot and organize (?).
  • 'Quasi-censorship' started with terrorism and a lot of that was shut down, but this goes beyond free expression, especially with millions viewing an election as 'fake', that's why I thought days ago the divisiveness needed to end, regardless of whether there were voting irregularities or not.
  • My view is that investors/citizens must insist we avoid domination by the right or the left in all this, with the 'center' holding against pressures.
  • If so, and considering the divisive media we've all suffered through, it will tend to reinforce my view of most things in life being 'neither black nor white but shades of gray', as that would argue for political compromise.
  • The appointment of Garland as AG isn't a market factor for now, but does in a sense immediately reflect the prospects of getting Senate approval in the wake of the Georgia vote.
  • Another 'fiscal push' has to be the primary theme of the market's push to higher levels, again that's reflected by infrastructure stocks zooming too, and probably the primary reason the market held together today.
  • COVID updates: every metric regarding still skyrocketing, overshadowing these other issues that of course we continue keeping an eye on.
  • Dr. Gottlieb was on CNBC this morning reiterating 'variant' resistance 'possibly' to existing vaccines and 'current' antibody therapeutics.
  • I have heard (but Sorrento has not updated), that in preclinical studies, both STI-1499 and STI-2020 demonstrated potent neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 virus isolates, including the emerging Spike D614G variant virus, if affirmed by Sorrento (srne) that would be an important factor.
  • Sorrento CEO Dr. Ji said their cocktail is designed to work against over 100 potential variants of the virus, no data on success yet provided, once STI-2020's approved a transformative process is very likely to be quicker on the next strand uptake, and that's one reason MaB's beat vaccines.
  • Regeneron (REGN) and Lilly (LLY) antibodies have only a slight affinity to original virus and therefore require high concentrations (the huge IV load Trump took is a way to look at that), so they may be first to fail with mutant variants.
  • Since SRNE's antibody has a high affinity to original virus, it's likely some decrease in affinity against mutant virus would still leave significant room for being efficacious overall, and that's the currently pending version.
  • Also, Inovio (INO) announced positive efficacy results from a Phase 2 trial of VGX-3100 to treat HPV-16 and HPV-18-associated vulvar dysplasia.. of course this DNA solution predated COVID.
  • Progress is important and the shares responded with a reasonable rise, reduction of precancerous disease offers a meaningful improvement in management of this devastating women's disease, per the primary work Inovio has been doing in oncology, the COVID vaccine is promising too.
  • Issues we're being confronted with now, are exogenous by reasonable definition, but COVID is still key, especially 'if' existing vaccines don't work sufficiently on the new variant (the plasma story may be a way of slowing breaking such news to the public, and we'll follow-up on this),
  • One advantage Sorrento's approach has if that they can design specific antibodies in a hurry, and likewise some say that Inovio could design a new DNA vaccine in a single day, hence where is the help to get it done.
  • I need not belabor these issues: INO is an investment for probably later Phase 3 testing unless FDA gets off their tail and pushes, while SRNE is likely to pop any day we find approval (if so) on their Covi-Stix EUA.
  • According to NBC News, 47 million Americans have or had COVID-19, so that's extraordinary, and more concerning again is that they 'think' after a recovery that they're immune.
  • Apparently immunity either wanes faster, or is not protective, against the new variant(s), hence the 'recovered' may be just walking time-bombs, thinking they're somehow safer than the rest of us to venture around.
  • Bottom-line: how we coordinate and navigate COVID 'is' still key to the market ahead, although very short-term ideally political aspects ebb (it is too fluid to know, and we'll see what happens with Trump's 'stability' as a significant number of White House personnel are rumored departing).

Today's trauma was not limited to the Capitol alone, as there were devices both at the Capitol, at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, and also at the Republican National Committee headquarters.

So as it evolves, the 'intent' of all this disruption is broader. Given concurrent demonstrations in Colorado, Wisconsin, even in Las Vegas, it's pretty clearly suggesting there's an organizational structure involved. One 'mob' member, in a slightly interesting remark, said, as Police ushered (rather gently) the rioters off the Capitol's steps, that 'you didn't take back the Capitol, we gave it back'.

That supports the idea that this was the first phase, not the last. As this was an insurrection, the FBI actively needs to arrest the ringleaders and right now if they can. Although the President's words tended to overlook the legalities, in a sense himself as well as others unfamiliar with the traditions and procedural laws of the United States, it is not perceived as an insurrection. But it was. So you not only find those people, but prosecute the instigators.

In-sum: it's pretty clear what the 'goal' was on the Capitol assault today, or at least that has been inferred (although I ponder if 'the protests' actually thought they would get into the Capitol: to capture or burn the 'actual' Electoral Votes in the 2 mahogany boxes that were rescued by staffers as they evacuated).

Throughout history when we need unity and calm, our leaders come forth met the moment, rather than agitated or rationalized mostly on his own behalf. It's pathetic and what's amazing (as we have rarely seen) was the benign way the U.S. stock market stoically reacted, which was to hold a majority of gains. For sure we'll return to normal market coverage as soon as conditions allow, as at least for the moment stocks are holding together incredibly well considering.

Bottom-line: citizens have a duty to check their outrage shy of 'very' extreme, contrary to what some have said 'as if' doing so would challenge civil liberties. And leaders have a duty to ponder but not falsely inflame passions. And yes, the S&P is still at high levels and somewhat bolstered by spending prospects while overlooking the prospect of a Fed tapering evolving within a year.

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