E Market Briefing For Thursday, April 2

Foot-dragging - isn't just limited to the ill-prepared United States health system for this pandemic, but prevails in too many parts of the world. It's either arrogance or who knows about accuracy that caused the US delay in 'proper' testing methods since the (supposedly-flawed) German tests were out-there, and Germany has just about the best control system for this in Europe, along with the Czech Republic which mandated everyone wearing masks from the start, as we've also advocated for that matter.  

SPY Monthly Chart

For the economy . . at some point a risk-reward analysis will minimize the uncertainty as relates to reopening an operating economy, so I will betcha turnaround correlates as well with 'mandating' wearing masks in the workplace, at least until we're aware that everyone cleared to work is 'actually' negative, which will be hard to attest (given the delays in what is called 'sero-converting' to active disease while asymptomatic). 

Florida . . bit the bullet today and issued a Statewide stay-home order, as already is the case in most metro areas. As an example of how it arrived, it might well be given by Florida's Governor, as DeSantis thinks (of course he doesn't know) that the virus starting circulating within the crowds from everywhere, at the February 2nd SuperBowl. DeSantis attended too. So, if one was infected at the SuperBowl they wouldn't know and might have in that case become carriers for the next several weeks. We believe that the earliest cases were probably November and not later than December, but not recognized for what it was, and even earlier possibly in China.   

 

Also it's problematic when business and shops reopen, just as you see in China today, where (after the disingenuous WHO commended them for excellence in containment... or disposing of victims in unsavory ways?), China has again quarantined an entire area (county) for an outbreak. So everyone should not only 'test' negative but wear masks in public. Just as an example, today Israel mandated everyone out and about must wear a mask at all times in public. The United States should lead, not lag, but of course I saw it as pre-planning supply-chain incompetence behind this in the U.S. case, and absolutely no excuse for how poorly it was handled.

 The mask issue has bothered me for many weeks, to the extent I warned friends and families, and only a couple listened. I have a family friend who 'may' (results not known yet) be positive (tested just today, and I haven't seen them in several weeks), and they did wear masks on flights and practiced social distancing. This virus is unrelenting of course, as even precautions aren't always adequate it seems.

In-sum:Given how medical professionals are struggling, I sure won't feel so overwhelmed. And I very much appreciate the kind words about our coverage of the markets and it seems early ideas about so much of what's been going on; masks etc.  

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