The technical construct of the S&P is satisfactory; basically relief that news is sufficiently favorable on inflation breaking in some food & fuel areas; while the economic picture is sufficiently shaky to perhaps dissuade the Fed guidance in the wake of a presumed further rake hike, from being too overly hawkish.

Nevertheless we anticipate a period of fluctuation or even turmoil ahead; that relates to the mood swings. It could even relate to what the ECB has to say in the days ahead, as they are widely presumed to initiate a new series of hikes, in the fact of a challenging economic backdrop. That's part of why Italy's got a real problem, with Draghi refusing to reconsider resigning, at least as of now.

In sum: we got 'traction' this week in an oscillating fashion; and Friday indeed was higher to start, and assisted more by some moderated Fed-heads talking.

They finally 'came for' the Generals (mega-caps) this year; and relief followed. It doesn't mean repetition of the grand-slam behind; but also doesn't preclude the other side of the hurricane storming into the sector later this Summer/Fall; although there are events that could help sidestep that occurrence. Ceasefire in Ukraine; a continued firm but not wild rise in Oil prices; and a calmer FOMC guidance after they hike rates, could contribute (any or all) to better outlooks.

Most stocks have been in their own 'recessions'; with just a handful discussed often giving an illusion of strength that really wasn't broadly evident. That's for sure part of why I allow for more correction and turbulent volatility; but doubt a full-blown crash, since we've already had that outside of a handful of issues.

Major big-tech names dominate; and because so many invest through indices and ETFs (essentially baskets of sometimes dissimilar stocks) it's hard to get a handful of fairly valued stocks to do much when they're suppressed by their inclusion in a basket that gets clobbered.

Of course reluctant rallies this past week did give a bit of visibility to a number of issues. While a mechanical rally I had called for (from late June into early-mid July); the inability of mega-caps, in this particular situation to crater anew; really helps the backdrop perception. The new week technically will be key.

That reduces to: When stocks don't go down in a negative news backdrop; do not get too pessimistic with the pundits that were (or are) more than cautious; but outright liquidating for some sort of catastrophe (that I suspect is avoided).

Some of these concerns may be amplified or thwarted not so much by Saudi Oil 'capacity' increases (very slick way of sidestepping actually raising levels of 'production); but rather Russia's Putin muddying the waters in Iran in this coming week; which will be distinct from watching the ECB in Europe or the U.S. after groveling a bit to the Saudis in a probably rough Riyadh gathering.

That doesn't mean there won't be a financial 'event' ahead; but does suggest the stocks that held up the best catch-down; and that process is somewhat in the middle of the behavior of that nature. Even Amazon cut prices enough for a record volume of sales on Prime Day; although that's in Q3 so hard to say it will contribute to better guidance, but might suggest no big online diminution.

Bottom line: The fluctuations continue at the intersection of daily resistance and the controlling declining tops pattern. Even if we break it to the upside as the week progresses, that's no assurance of sustainability but does reinforce ideas that those who were sellers a week ago amidst jitters, were premature.

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