'Deal or no deal' continues a couple weeks of swings in Washington negotiations; so there's the need and justification for Executive Order action as a stopgap for now. This whole scenario may or may not have been revised by Monday morning.  

Executive summary:

• Medical progress is uppermost for the majority of the population; as solutions to even just the 'testing' boondoggle would enhance lives for all citizens; while the funding challenge of course is imminently crucial for many;

• The 'real deal' apparently isn't President Trump's Executive Action proving relief that is going to be seen as politically beneficial (or that will be the response we'll hear) to Trump's campaign; as he appears to ride to the rescue on some Federal mortgages, Unemployment; even Student Loans; but many citizens won't look at 'debate' on this issue; they look at incomes and an ability to eat and pay rent;

• What this means is, politics aside, Congress needs to make a deal rapidly; it is incomprehensible to those wishing any 'change' not to recognize the situation;

• Note that Robinhood will no longer show how many of their customers are in any individual stock; that's going to limit information and perhaps tame what has been a concentration into a small number of stocks;

• Calling it 'manipulation by the masses' that Wall St. hates; I make this a 'special discussion' later in this Briefing; and yes it goes away or we all should get the data; I'm thinking if Robinhood can show that; is it believable that trading desks at the big firms don't see comparable data, at least within their own client-base?;

• So yes, some of those stocks become self-fulfilling prophecies; criticized broadly but we do not, and in fact congratulate millennials and others who solidly beat the industry at its own game this year (we did too so congratulate all who did);

• We've occasionally noted how 'the Street' (which does similar on a grand scale, we used to call it a 'syndicate', often led by Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan) was so bearish (still are) all the way up from March lows; and compelled to chase the big super-caps (which are increasingly risky) due to liquidity 'flow' needs;

• Now, not then (coming-off 'The Inger Bottom' March 23rd; the idea was eventual shakeouts and corrections; but no lower low for the S&P at least for awhile.

In sum: most characteristics of this market are within context of what I've discussed for months; after our projected advance off the March 'max-fear' low exhausted within the broadest base of stocks, as they concentrated active interest almost solely in the super-cap FANG types and so on.

Twice this summer we had brief broadening-out phases; and one should actually be able to sustain, 'if' we had visibility to migrate through the worst of the pandemic. It's very crucial. Not only do we have the prospect of 'seasonal influenza colliding with a horrific Covid-19 that's still spreading', but the working vaccines or therapeutics are still on the horizon. That may change quickly as you know; but for us to be optimistic is not the same as Government that is ill-prepared to cope with 'disease intersection' without effective treatment.

And in that area, 'on-site' quick testing could help before we get to the point of a Pill, which is a superior and reasonable way to nip Covid-19 in the bud (both Sorrento and Merck are working on such projects; and there's enough market for more than a single 'winner' in that area; but we're not at the point of knowing as we await filing of a 'Treatment IND' by Sorrento for just that possibility later this month).

Seriously, on a global scale this matters; since as the Polio vaccine showed; overall deliverability of the original Jonas Salk vaccine was constrained as an injection; thus nurses or doctors were needed. The subsequent oral Sabin vaccine was oral; so any teacher, community leader or priest for instance, could vaccinate a community. This is the biggest market; and so is the quick testing as (for instance the saliva version) doesn't even require medical knowledge to interpret; as it's like a 'Keto-stick' color coded and can be included in a cellphone App (using a QR code) as a passport of immunity; set-up before departing for any venue or trip that requires Covid status.

Bottom line: the call for grinding out higher highs without a catastrophe and with the leadership (tired and overdone as it became) was a correct assessment this Summer as was the focus on the importance of Covid mattering more than politics or the Fed.

But when it comes to the Fed, they helped let this get out of control. Some think and I understand that, that the Fed should hike rates and break the 'insanity' as they see it. It isn't broadly insane; it is risky in sectors; and the Fed will not intervene now.

So, while interesting to see how the market reacts Monday morning, there's likely no assumption that this somehow is all we're going to see. The markets are extended; a funding for new testing and vaccines needs to be approved (mostly by Congress as I believe is the case); and the virus itself continues ravaging the Country as schools of course start to open (virtual or on-site); with lots of issues already. And the inability of a fairly sizable portion of the populace to take this seriously, endangers us all; most clearly especially if viewed as lack of respect for others. The experience globally isn't at all supportive of contentions wearing protective masks doesn't help. (Some masks are better than others; simple thin-fabric 'face covering' is barely better than nothing, as some doctors and other countries have contended.)

Politics and unknown medical protective specifics aside, Trump's orders aren't what markets preferred; clearly disappointed by Congress. A $400 unemployment kicker (100 to be paid by already struggling states), eviction moratoriums also, but only on federal loans, payroll tax deference without clarifying paying back said money, and a student loan deference won't please many; so we'll suspect it's a placeholder while a battle rages behind the scenes in Washington. Eyeing no other stimulus or additional $1200 payments won't be well-received; so it really just throws the ball back to both Speaker Pelosi, and Treasury Sec'y. Mnuchin.  

Conclusion: 'lost control' is a trap the Fed boxed themselves into. Hike rates now and they would of course expedite a crash to go along with the Depression parts of the Country are in. Aside Covid treatment, cure, vaccine and/or stimulus, it becomes an obvious and broader Depression. Can't have that; need to muddle through; get this cured or not an impediment to daily life, with the goal is to migrate the path while the Fed Put still means something. 

So being optimistic we'll 'corral' Covid before the Bulls are totally sent out to pasture; we're not running for Election; so can react swiftly if another prospect becomes more likely (it's a reason we'd follow the treatment evolution closely as we have since first identifying pandemic risks back in January of this year). Hence while catching both a downside collapse and making a few bucks on the upside romp, it often doesn't feel like it, because we understand what millions of people, worldwide, are suffering. But our role is to be compassionate and help where able, while not joining those ranks in taking advantage of the bifurcation of society; not just stocks and politics this year.