Large Cap Biopharma Performance And Metrics Q3 2020; ETFs Are Winners
Update-1 NOV 23 DOW Up 1.12% led by Financials, energy, and industrials.
- Healthcare continues to lag with XLV down 0.26% to $108.52.
- Vaccine stocks still showing gains: BNTX, CVAC, MRNA, NVAX; race still on. Astra Zeneca/Oxford data shows mixed results.
- Diagnostics lagging: CODX, HOLX, OSUR, QDEL.
- Large-cap leaders: ABBV, ALXN, VRTX.
- Energy soaring with XLE up 7%.
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Large Cap Biopharma Performance -As of Q3 Earnings 2020
Quick Take: ETFs Were the Best Plays
Many of these stocks have lagged or declined since January 2018 and in 2020 saw highs in mid-summer. Regeneron has outperformed in 2020 and has bounced 242 points off its 2018 lows because of its deep R&D capabilities. Regeneron (REGN) ran up in 2020 because of its antibody cocktail to treat COVID-19 and recently received emergency approval. We recently picked Merck (MRK) at $75 and Abbvie (ABBV) as a new buy in the high 80s range, now at $100.
We will provide new trading ideas from this large-cap biopharma group next week. Or just buy the IBB.
Surging coronavirus infections has even nicked the healthcare sector down 3% for the week. The breakthrough in COVID vaccines has pivoted trades toward small caps, materials, and energy so we’ll see if this trend continues through next week. Small-cap speculation in many biotechs and life science stocks is strong.
- The best portfolio bet in 2020 for non-traders would have been the IBB up 15% YTD or even the Fidelity Biotechnology Fund (FBIOX) up 25%.
- For aggressive portfolios and as we have commented on many times the XBI up 32% YTD is the best trade but volatile on down NASDAQ days.
- Laggards in 2020 are Biogen (BIIB) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) for good reasons.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is still assimilating the Celgene acquisition so another laggard.
- AstraZeneca (AZN) is a favorite from analysts for EPS growth in 2021 and also has a COVID vaccine candidate.
- And of course, the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) ETF up 36% leads all popular ETFs in 2020
| COMPANY | Ticker | Price | 2017 | Price | Price | MktCap |
% Perform |
|||||
| 1/15/18 | Rev$B | 11/21/20 | 11/1/19 | 2020 | YTD | FWD | Analyst | % | ||||
| 2018 | $ | $B | P/S | PE | Recom | Div | ||||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | 100.340 | 27.27 | 100.84 | 81.75 | 176 | 13.89 | 4.33 | 8.28 | 2 | 5.16 | |
| Alexion | ALXN | 122.710 | 3.47 | 121.38 | 109.38 | 26.7 | 12.23 | 4.56 | 9.38 | 2.2 | ||
| Amgen | AMGN | 185.040 | 23 | 223.17 | 217.95 | 130.8 | -7.43 | 5.23 | 13.12 | 2.4 | 2.87 | |
| AstraZeneca | AZN | 55.3 | 46.88 | 141.5 | 10.91 | 5.47 | 21.9 | 1.6 | 2.53 | |||
| Biogen | BIIB | 335.950 | 11.84 | 244.15 | 299.2 | 37.55 | -17.72 | 2.63 | 9.6 | 2.7 | ||
| Bristol Myers | BMY | 62.810 | 19.92 | 61.61 | 57.16 | 140.3 | -4 | 3.56 | 8.26 | 1.9 | 2.9 | |
| Celgene* (BMY) | CELG | 106.000 | 12.5 | n/a | 108.53 | 77 | n/a | 4.69 | 8.7 | n/a | ||
| Gilead Sci | GILD | 79.020 | 27.48 | 60.11 | 64.66 | 76 | -7.49 | 3.28 | 9.03 | 2.5 | 4.53 | |
| GlaxoSmithK | GSK | 37.03 | 45 | 92.87 | (21,20) | 2.04 | 12.05 | 2 | 5.48 | |||
| Merck | MRK | 58.660 | 39.8 | 80.45 | 84.94 | 203.4 | -11.54 | 4.3 | 12.64 | 2 | 3.23 | |
| Regeneron | REGN | 366.960 | 5.52 | 517.74 | 310.48 | 54.9 | 38.15 | 6.66 | 14.22 | 2.1 | ||
| Vertex | VRTX | 158.000 | 2.3 | 266.5 | 215.21 | 55.12 | -1.71 | 9.2 | 18.74 | 2 | ||
| XBI | 126.04 | 83.66 | 32.52 | |||||||||
| IBB | 138.87 | 109.85 | 15.24 | 0.23 | ||||||||
| FBT | 158.1 | 132.92 | 6.31 | |||||||||
| FBIOX | 26.24 | 20.26 | 25.5 | |||||||||
| XLV | 108 | 94.87 | 6.81 | |||||||||
| XPH | 48.15 | 39.47 | 5.43 | |||||||||
| QQQ | 290.38 | 36.58 | ||||||||||
Disclosure: Long ABBV, AZN, BMY, FBIOX, GILD, MRK, XBI
None.
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