Kansas City Fed Survey: Decline In August

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey business conditions indicator measures activity in the following states: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western Missouri, and northern New Mexico.

Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined in August, while expectations for future activity edged higher.

“Regional factory activity had its largest monthly drop in over three years, and over 55 percent of firms expect negative impacts from the latest round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods,” said Wilkerson. “However, even though many firms expect trade tensions to persist, expectations for future shipments and exports expanded slightly.” [Full PDF release here]

Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

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Kansas City Manufacturing Composite

The next chart is an overlay of the general and future outlook indexes — the outlook six months ahead. Future factory indexes increased in August to 11 from last month's 9.

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For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

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Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

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Here is the same chart including the average of the five.

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