June Jobs Report: A Tale Of Two Very Different Surveys - But Both Far From Full Recovery

Wages of non-managerial workers

  • Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.10 to $25.68, which is a 3.7% YoY gain. This is excellent news, considering that many low-wage workers have finally been recalled to work. 

Aggregate hours and wages:

  • the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined by -0.1%, which is a  loss of -4.4% since just before the pandemic.
  •  the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.3%, which is a gain of 2.5% since just before the pandemic.

Other significant data:

  • Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, increased 343,000, but is still 2.2 million, or 12.9% below their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments gained 194,000, but is still -1,270,200, or -10.3% below their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Full time jobs decreased -183,000 in the household report.
  • Part time jobs increased 408,000 in the household report.
  • The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined by 644,000 to 4,627,000, which is an increase of 229,000 since before the pandemic began.

SUMMARY

This month saw two very different components of the overall jobs report. The establishment survey, which tells us how many jobs were added or lost in various sectors, was very strong, while the household report, which tells us things about unemployment and underemployment, was very weak although still positive.

There was lots of good news in the hardest hit sectors of leisure and hospitality and eduction, which were responsible for over half of all the job gains; while manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services were either weakly positive or even slightly negative. Wage growth also continued strongly, which is certainly good news.

On the other hand, full time jobs as measured in the household report actually declined. But both permanent and temporary layoffs decreased, as did the newly unemployed, as did involuntary part time employment - all of which are very good.

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Disclaimer: This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.

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