June Jobs Report: A Tale Of Two Very Different Surveys - But Both Far From Full Recovery

HEADLINES:

  • 850,000 jobs added. Of these, 662,000 were private sector jobs, and 188,000 were government jobs, chiefly in education. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of only 128,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
  • The total number of employed is still 6,764,000, or -4.4% below its pre-pandemic peak.  At this rate jobs have grown this year, it will take another full year for employment to completely recover.
  • U3 unemployment rate *rose* 0.1% to 5.9%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
  • U6 underemployment rate declined -0.4% to 9.8%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
  • Those on temporary layoff declined -12,000 to 1,811,000.
  • Permanent job losers declined -47,000 to 3,187,000.
  • April was revised downward by -9,000, while May was revised upward by 24,000, for a net gain of 15,000 jobs compared with previous reports.

Sculpture, Art, Breadline, Bronze, Depression, 1930

Image Source: Pixabay

Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession

These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and will help us gauge how strong the rebound from the pandemic will be.  These were mixed: 

  • the average manufacturing workweek decreased -0.2 hours to 40.2 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
  • Manufacturing jobs rose 15,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -481,000 jobs, or -3.8% of the total.
  • Construction jobs fell -7,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -238,000 construction jobs have been lost, or -3.1% of the total.
  • Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,500. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 33,100 jobs have been gained in this sector, or 3.4%.
  • temporary jobs rose by 3,300. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been -278,500 jobs lost, or -9.5% of all temporary jobs.
  • the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined by -42,000 to 1,981,000, which is  -101,000 *lower* than just before the pandemic hit.
  • Professional and business employment rose by 72,000, which is still 633,000, or about -2.9%, below its pre-pandemic peak.
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Disclaimer: This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.

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