The economy's rate of growth decelerated based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average - and the economy is slightly above the historical trend rate of growth.

Analyst Opinion of the CFNAI This Month

This index is likely the best coincident indicator of the U.S. economy. A coincident indicator shows the current state of the economy.

This month, three of the four broad categories improved

The economy has slowed from its rate of growth in 2018 but now has moved above territory associated with recessions [a level below -0.7 indicates a recession is likely underway].

The single month index is not used for economic forecasting and unfortunately is what the CFNAI headlines. Economic predictions are based on the 3-month moving average. The single-month index historically is very noisy and the 3-month moving average would be the way to view this index in any event.

The three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) changed from +0.80 (originally reported as +0.81 last month) to +0.06

PLEASE NOTE:

• This index IS NOT accurate in real-time (see caveats below) - and it did miss the start of the 2007 recession.
• The expectations from Econoday were 0.28 to 0.45 (consensus 0.30) - the actual was +0.09 for the single month index which is not used for economic forecasting.
• This index is a rearview mirror of the economy.

A value of zero for the index would indicate that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and that a level below -0.7 would be indicating a recession was likely underway. Econintersect uses the three-month trend because the index is very noisy (volatile).

CFNAI Three Month Moving Average (blue line) with Historical Recession Line (red line)

As the 3-month index is the trend line, the overall trend is down As stated: this index only begins to show what is happening in the economy after many months of revision following the index's first release.

CFNAI Three Month Moving Average Showing Month-over-Month Change

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing, and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

CFNAI Components - Production and Income (orange line), Employment / Unemployment & Hours (green line), Personal Consumption & Housing (blue line), and Sales / Orders & Inventory (red line)

Low Personal Consumption has been a headwind on the index for the last three years. The other three elements of the CFNAI have taken turns dragging the index down. The Chicago Fed's explanation of the movement this month:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.09 in June from +0.26 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, but two categories deteriorated from May. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.06 in June from +0.80 in May.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.13 in June from +0.40 in May. Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 40 made negative contributions. Forty-five indicators improved from May to June, while 40 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions.

On July 19, 2021, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that April 2020 marked the end of the recent recession. For details on the success of the CFNAI in tracking the dating of recessions established by the NBER, see the background information document.

Production-related indicators contributed +0.01 to the CFNAI in June, down from +0.26 in May. Industrial production moved up 0.4 percent in June after increasing 0.7 percent in May, and manufacturing production decreased 0.1 percent in June after rising 0.9 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI increased to +0.06 in June from -0.04 in May.

The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI moved down to +0.09 in June from +0.15 in May. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 850,000 in June after increasing by 583,000 in May, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.9 percent in June. The personal consumption and housing category contributed -0.08 to the CFNAI in June, up slightly from -0.11 in May. Housing starts increased to 1,643,000 annualized units in June from 1,546,000 in May, but housing permits decreased to 1,598,000 annualized units in June from 1,683,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of July 20, 2021. At that time, June data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.

Econintersect considers the CFNAI one of the better single metrics to gauge the real economic activity for the U.S. - and puts the entire month's economic releases into their proper perspective, although it is almost a month after the fact. It correlates well and historically has lead GDP. Note that the CFNAI is updated monthly and within 30 days of period close. GDP is released quarterly so lags the CFNAI by up to three months.

As the CFNAI is a summary index, the data must be assumed to be correct to give it credibility. This assumption has been justified in the past because the index has proven to have a good correlation to the overall economy. When using this index, it is the trend direction that is important - not necessarily the value when the index is above -0.7, the historical boundary between expansion and contraction.

Caveats on the Use of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The index is quite noisy, and the only way to view the data is to use the 3-month moving average. As this index is never set in concrete, each month a good portion (usually from January 2001 onwards) of the data is backwardly revised slightly. The most significant revision is in the data released in the last six months due to revisions of the 85 indices which are embodied in the CFNAI.

Even the 3-month moving average has over time significant backward revision. This is due both to changing methodology and backward revisions of this index's data sources. This point is important as the authors of this index have stated that -0.7 value is the separation between economic expansion and contraction. The graph below shows the difference between the originally published index values and the values of the index as of August 2011.

This index seems to continuously creep - and when using this index in real-time, Econintersect would assume the index values when first released could easily be off in a range +0.2 to -0.2 as the data in the future will be continuously revised. However, there are times when the uncertainty in real-time can be much larger. For seven consecutive months in the Great Recession, backward revisions ranged from -0.7 to -0.9. In such times of severe economic stress, the CFNAI has little real-time accuracy, although it still definitely was showing that the economy was bad. It simply did not reflect exactly how bad in real-time.

We can compare the CFNAI to ECRI's coincident index which is released monthly almost in real-time. It is true that using ECRI's coincident index, the year-over-year rate of change is at recession levels - however, the CFNAI's rate of change provides a different conclusion.

(Click on image to enlarge)

In real-time, ECRI's coincident indicator may be providing a better yardstick for the Wall Street economy. While in hindsight, CFNAI seems more intuitive - but is inaccurate in real-time because of backward revision. GDP lives in its own world (as opposed to what economy is experienced by the population in their own lives) and has a general correlation to most broad forecasts or coincident indexes as a selected view of the overall economy. However, I do not believe GDP has a good correlation to the Main Street economy.