Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Surges To Yearly Open Resistance
The Japanese Yen is down more than 4.8% against the US Dollar since the August yearly extremes with USD/JPY rallying into a critical resistance threshold at fresh five-month highs this week- we’re looking for a reaction up here. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart.
JAPANESE YEN PRICE CHART – USD/JPY WEEKLY
(Click on image to enlarge)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview
Notes: USD/JPY is testing a critical resistance barrier at 109.36/68 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range, the March low / July high, and the objective yearly open. The broader August recovery is vulnerable while below this threshold near-term and the focus is on a reaction off this mark.
Initial support rests with the August trendline backed by the 2017 low-week close at 107.84. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the yearly low-week reversal close at 106.25- a close below this level would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. A topside breach / close above 109.68 keep the focus on the next major resistance zone at 110.70-111.05 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY rally is now testing key resistance at multi-month highs and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable near-term while below the yearly open. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. High risk for topside exhaustion here – be on the lookout for support into the August trendline IF price is indeed heading higher. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
JAPANESE YEN TRADER SENTIMENT – USD/JPY PRICE CHART
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- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/JPY - the ratio stands at -1.11 (47.37% of traders are long) – neutral reading
- Long positions are11.76% higher than yesterday and 6.93% lower from last week
- Short positions are 5.74% higher than yesterday and 23.68% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.