Important Stock Market Bottom Underway

The following True Vine Letter is an excerpt from a recent Premium Edition Letter.

Some Revealing Charts

It occurred to me on a walk last night that drawing the weekly trend lines on logarithmic scale charts and then switching the charts to monthly with the weekly trend lines remaining is a way to determine when the long-term trend may be at a key inflection point. Here is what this looks like for the S&P 500 Index:

logarithmic scale; chart courtesy of barchart.com ;  click to enlarge

logarithmic scale; chart courtesy of barchart.com;

(Click on image to enlarge)

You can see here that the monthly price is still within the weekly bull channel that goes back to October 2012. In other words, the long-term bullish trend is still intact.

It is worth noting that following this method—raising cash when the monthly price nears the top of the weekly channel and deploying cash when the monthly price nears the bottom of the weekly channel—would have helped you reduce exposure right before the last 2 stock market peaks in January 2018 and July 2018.

Here is the same type of chart for the State Street SPDR Portfolio Developed World Ex-US ETF (SPDW): 

logarithmic scale; chart courtesy of barchart.com ;  click to enlarge

logarithmic scale; chart courtesy of barchart.com;

(Click on image to enlarge)

You can see from this chart that this relationship is even more pronounced for these large capitalization, developed country stocks listed outside the United States.

Another factor at play here is the US dollar. The SPDW turned higher in January 2016, right as the dollar started falling, and has been plummeting in 2018 as the dollar has been climbing.

In the context of decent global economic growth, these 2 charts tell me that (1) stocks are getting ready to put in a bottom and (2 )non-US developed market stocks could outperform the S&P 500 in 2019 if I am correct that the US dollar is peaking and getting ready to roll over. 

Regarding the US dollar rolling over, consider the following monthly price chart of the WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund ETF (USDU) annotated with the weekly price trend line channels:

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Disclaimer: The True Vine Letter is a publication of True Vine Investments, the investment advisory business of Joshua S. Hall, ChFC, and a Registered Investment Advisor in the U.S.A. The information ...

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