A Big Picture Analysis Of Crypto Cycles And Key Levels

Since November 13, 2018, Bitcoin has shed 48 percent, Ripple is off by 43 percent, and Ethereum has plunged by 54 percent. All three coins staged textbook, bearish volatility breakouts (daily chart basis) on November 14th, along with dozens of other coins. Are these big market cap coins closing in on major cycle lows? Is there a rational technical basis for believing the worst of the 2018 crypto bear market is nearing an end? Examine the key crypto cycles and key levels for each coin and reach your own conclusions.

Technicals vs. Fundamentals

Remember that a coin’s technical charts and underlying fundamentals may paint completely different pictures for prospective traders and investors. For example, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to be excellent (looking ahead three, five, or even ten years), but that may not be sufficient reason for a short-term swing trader to go long BTCUSD right now. The same could be said for Ripple (XRPUSD) and perhaps even for Ethereum (ETHUSD). In this article, the focus is on technicals, not the fundamentals.

Big Picture Crypto Cycles and Key Levels

Bitcoin Cycles

Every cryptocurrency moves in repetitive price cycles. In fact, every chart time period imaginable has a price cycle. Even three- and five-minute intraday charts have tradable cycles. Identifying future convergences of multiple cycle lows (or highs) can give you a potent crypto trading edge. Here are three multicycle low projection charts for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD. These are the largest-cap cryptos and serve as a general timing proxy for smaller coins, too.

Have a look at Bitcoin’s weekly cycles chart:

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD, weekly: Three of Bitcoin’s key price cycles suggest that a major low is near. Expand the chart for a clearer view. Image: MotiveWave.com

Bitcoin offers the most historical data, meaning that its cycle timing data is more reliable than most other coins. The chart reveals that a high-probability multicycle low is attempting to form. The 72-day, 21-week, and 41-week cycles are all in agreement that a major low is near. At the same time, the 18-month cycle suggests that its next major low will occur in the fall of 2019.

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